Russian refinery seasonal maintenance crude oil exports expected to increase in September

Foreign news on September 7, market participants said that since September, Russian refineries have been undergoing seasonal maintenance projects, which will lead to an increase in the country’s crude oil exports in September, although Russia has vowed to reduce exports.

Statistics show that in September, Russian refinery offline primary refining capacity is expected to increase by 44% from August to 4.635 million tons, which is higher than the previous plan.

An increase in offline refining capacity typically leads to an increase in the amount of available crude oil and boosts exports.

Idle primary refining capacity in September has been revised up 4.5% from the original plan due to changes in refinery maintenance plans. In August, Russia's offline production capacity reached 3.228 million tons, 4.2% higher than the planned level.

Traders said that in September, Russian crude oil shipments from western ports are expected to increase by 17% month-on-month to 2.1 million barrels per day. Russia said earlier this week it planned to extend voluntary production cuts until the end of this year to support international oil prices.

During May-June, crude oil exports from ports in western Russia were approximately 2.4 million barrels per day.

Traders said that in September, Russia's Baltic Sea port is expected to export 6.4 million tons of crude oil, and the Black Sea Novorossiisk port is expected to export 2.4 million tons.

The discount for August loading of Russian Urals crude to the Brent crude benchmark has fallen to a record low amid falling supplies. The main buyers of this grade of crude oil are Indian refineries, which have already stated that they will reduce their purchases of Russian crude oil. The forecast for idle primary refining capacity in September was raised 4.5% from the previous plan of 4.434 million tonnes due to changes in refinery maintenance schedules.

Statistical data shows that from January to August, Russia's offline primary refining capacity reached 25.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of more than 20%.