1. The parking of phthalic anhydride units is increasing and it is difficult for the market to change the status quo
Phthalic anhydride plants have been shut down one after another, but the market supply is still sufficient, and it is difficult to change the situation of oversupply. It is reported that due to the two sessions and the strengthening of environmental protection policies, the start-up of the terminal industry has been low, so that the market has been weak and depressed throughout March. Market orders are scarce and demand is bleak. For this reason, the downstream production of phthalic anhydride has been declining due to the growing inventory. The downstream and its market players are cautious, the inquiry volume is declining, and the transactions are dismal. The phthalic anhydride factory is also blocked due to shipments, and the inventory is increasing. , the pressure increases.
2. Raw material supply: demand is difficult to recover and the atmosphere is strong and negative
(1), Industrial naphthalene:
Next month, the domestic industrial naphthalene market will be dominated by fluctuations. With the end of centralized maintenance of phthalic anhydride plants, market procurement demand will gradually recover. In addition, domestic industrial naphthalene factories were undergoing maintenance in April, which reduced the pressure on market supply. Due to the current sufficient inventory of raw materials in phthalic anhydride factories, industrial naphthalene will continue to be sluggish in the first half of next month, with many prices continuing to fall slightly. The market will gradually recover in the middle to late period, and prices will rise by 100-200 yuan/ton.
(2), o-xylene:
Although some factories were shut down for maintenance, the overall impact on the market was small. Although there was a downward trend in mid-March, the market was weak and the bleak trading situation has not changed. In April, the restarting equipment of the phthalic anhydride factory will be restarted one after another, but for its neighbors The growth in demand for benzene is small, and the raw material inventory of phthalic anhydride factories is sufficient. Therefore, the o-benzene market is expected to maintain a downward trend in April, and the price is expected to be around 6,200 yuan/ton
3. Downstream demand: mixed in April
The overall market supply is abundant, and part of the supply in March is bound to be transferred to April for digestion. From the fundamentals of supply and demand, 7,000 tons of imports are expected to arrive in Hong Kong. In addition, the factory's pending shipments will be transferred to the April market. It is expected that It is still a manifestation of oversupply. Therefore, although there is a positive news about the overhaul of the octanol unit, the impact is yet to be determined. From the current market price, the price is relatively low, so the sensitivity to price changes has increased, and traders mostly have short positions to be covered. It is expected that the price will show a falling-up-falling trend in April. In the first ten days of the month, the price will be matched with the octanol purchasing point DOP, and there will be short-covering transactions to realize the price bottoming out and rebounding. However, supply pressure should be considered.
4. Forecast: Demand is growing slowly and prices are still falling
Environmental protection inspections have intensified, and terminal and downstream products have been hit hard. Demand will be difficult to recover in the short term, and the market will continue to be bleak. Although phthalic anhydride factories will be inspected one after another in April, there are also many restarted devices, so the supply of phthalic anhydride is still sufficient. , it is difficult to change the oversupply situation in early April, and the inventory of phthalic anhydride factories remains high. In terms of raw materials, there is still room for the downward trend of phthalic benzene and industrial naphthalene, and there is also pressure on the cost side. Therefore, the overall phthalic anhydride market is expected to be weak and negative in April.
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