According to foreign news on October 11, Saudi Arabia’s voluntary production cuts and other OPEC member countries’ production target reductions are successfully tightening global market supply, prompting the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to significantly increase its output in a report released on October 11. It raised its forecast for oil prices next year.
In the October Short-term Energy Outlook, EIA raised its 2024 Brent crude oil price forecast by $6.69 to $94.91/barrel, and estimated that U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil will average $90.91/barrel in 2024. , an increase of $7.69 from the previous month’s estimate.
EIA estimates that oil production from OPEC members will drop by 340,000 barrels per day in 2024 to 37.84 million barrels per day. In 2023, production is expected to decline by 1.39 million barrels per day, partially offsetting the expected production growth from non-OPEC oil-producing countries. 2.7 million barrels per day.
At the same time, the agency predicts that global oil demand will be 100.92 million barrels per day in 2023, increasing to 102.24 million barrels per day in 2024. The demand estimate for 2023 will be lowered by 50,000 barrels per day, and the demand estimate for 2024 will be lowered by 90,000 barrels per day. barrel/day.
With global oil supply growth constrained by OPEC actions, EIA expects global oil demand to exceed global production in the second half of 2023 and much of 2024, putting upward pressure on oil prices.
The agency slightly adjusted its oil price forecast in 2023, lowering its 2023 Brent crude oil price forecast by 37 cents to US$84.09/barrel, and lowering its WTI crude oil price forecast by 6 cents to US$79.59/barrel. But the EIA noted that in the three months from June to September 2023, Brent crude oil prices jumped by nearly $20, reaching an average of $94/barrel.
EIA expects that as global oil consumption growth generally slows and production growth accelerates, global oil inventories will continue to decline at a rate of about 200,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024 before balancing out during the remainder of the year. .
This balance will bring "some modest downward price pressure" in the second half of 2024, the EIA said.
EIA raised its 2023 U.S. oil production forecast by 140,000 barrels per day to 12.92 million barrels per day. Production is expected to continue to grow in 2024, with U.S. crude oil production expected to reach 13.12 million barrels per day. The estimate was lowered by 40,000 barrels per day.
EIA pointed to a number of factors that may affect its forecast, including uncertainty that a war between Israel and Hamas could lead to oil supply disruptions; OPEC production being higher than expected; U.S. oil producers adding rigs and raising wells level of efficiency; and changes in the global economic outlook.
**Growth in demand for biofuels and aviation fuel**
As oil prices rise, the EIA changes its forecast for lower gasoline and diesel prices.
The agency now forecasts that retail gasoline prices will rise from an average of $3.62/gallon this year to $3.69/gallon in 2024, an increase of 17 cents from last month’s forecast.
EIA forecasts retail diesel prices this year at $4.29/gallon, down 2 cents from the previous forecast, and in 2024 at $4.29/gallon, up 22 cents from the September forecast.
EIA said that as prices rise, U.S. gasoline demand is expected to decline by 2% in 2024, while distillate demand remains fairly stable.
But total U.S. oil and other liquefied fuel consumption is expected to increase to 20.2 million barrels per day in 2024, leaving fuel demand only 2% below pre-pandemic levels in 2019 and below the record high consumption in 2005. 3%, EIA said.
However, the share of petroleum fuels produced by refineries is expected to decline in 2024 as biofuels take up a larger share of the transportation fuel mix.
“We expect renewable diesel consumption to increase by more than 30% (60,000 b/d) by 2024, with much of it directly replacing petroleum-based diesel, particularly in California,” the agency said. We forecast that biofuels' average share of U.S. liquid fuel consumption will rise from 1% in 2005 to 6% by 2024."
EIA also pointed out that aviation fuel demand is expected to jump 6% in 2024 to more than 1.7 million barrels per day, which will be equal to pre-epidemic consumption in 2019.
EIA said the shift to larger aircraft with more seats has allowed U.S. airlines to reduce aviation fuel consumption for the same number of passengers, but growing travel demand will cause aviation fuel consumption to rise in 2024.
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