——Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the CPI and PPI data for September 2023
The National Bureau of Statistics today released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) data for September 2023. In this regard, Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation.
1. CPI increased month-on-month and remained the same year-on-year
In September, the consumer market continued to recover and CPI continued to rise month-on-month. However, affected by the higher comparison base in the same period last year, the year-on-year increase turned to flat.
From a month-on-month perspective, CPI increased by 0.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices increased by 0.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.06 percentage points. The market supply is relatively sufficient before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day this year, and the food price increase is slightly lower than the historical average for the same period. In food, as the school season and the Double Festival are approaching, the prices of fresh vegetables and eggs increased by 3.3% and 3.2% respectively; the supply increased after the fishing moratorium, and the prices of shrimps, crabs and seawater fish fell by 2.6% and 0.8% respectively; pork, fresh fruits, and poultry meat Food prices such as food prices are basically stable. Non-food prices increased by 0.2%, the same increase as last month, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.14 percentage points. Among non-food products, the price of industrial consumer goods increased by 0.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Affected by the increase in international oil prices, domestic gasoline prices increased by 2.4%; autumn clothing changed with new seasons, and clothing prices increased by 0.9%. Service prices changed from an increase of 0.1% in the previous month to a decrease of 0.1%. Among them, travel decreased after the summer vacation, and the prices of air tickets, hotel accommodation and tourism decreased by 12.6%, 5.5% and 3.4% respectively. At the beginning of the new semester, the price of educational services increased by 1.4%.
From a year-on-year perspective, CPI remained flat from an increase of 0.1% last month. Among them, food prices fell by 3.2%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. This was mainly due to the increase in food prices in the same period last year, which affected the CPI to fall by about 0.60 percentage points. Among food, the prices of pork and fresh vegetables fell by 22.0% and 6.4% respectively, and the decline expanded by 4.1 and 3.1 percentage points respectively. The total impact on the CPI dropped by about 0.51 percentage points, accounting for nearly 90% of the total decline in food prices; mutton and edible oil prices fell respectively. Prices of aquatic products and fresh fruits turned from rising to falling, with falling rates of 1.5% and 0.3% respectively. Non-food prices rose by 0.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.57 percentage points. Among non-food products, the price of industrial consumer goods fell by 0.3%, and the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points. Among them, the price of gasoline fell by 1.2%, and the decline narrowed by 3.4 percentage points. Service prices increased by 1.3%, the same increase as last month. Among them, the prices of air tickets, travel and hotel accommodation increased by 14.0%, 12.3% and 10.4% respectively, and the increases all declined; the price of education services increased by 1.8%, and the increase expanded.
According to estimates, in the year-on-year change in CPI in September, the impact of tailing was approximately -0.2 percentage points, compared with 0.2 percentage points last month; the new impact of price changes this year was approximately 0.2 percentage points, compared with -0.1 percentage points last month. percentage point. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.8% year-on-year, the same increase as last month.
2. The month-on-month increase in PPI expanded, while the year-on-year decrease narrowed
In September, affected by factors such as the gradual recovery of demand for industrial products and the continued rise in international crude oil prices, the month-on-month increase in PPI expanded, while the year-on-year decrease narrowed.
From a month-on-month perspective, PPI increased by 0.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production increased by 0.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points; the price of means of living increased by 0.1%, and the increase was the same as last month. International crude oil prices continued to rise, driving prices in the domestic oil and natural gas mining industry to rise by 4.1%, and prices in the petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry to rise by 3.1%. Improved demand and tight supply drove prices in the nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry to rise by 1.2%, and in the coal mining and washing industry, prices rose by 1.1%. Prices in the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry were flat. In addition, prices in the manufacturing industry of culture, education, industry, beauty, sports and entertainment products increased by 0.7%, prices in the agricultural and sideline food processing industry increased by 0.6%, and prices in the textile industry increased by 0.2%; prices in the manufacturing of complete computer machines increased by 0.7%, and prices in the manufacturing of intelligent consumer equipment increased by 0.5%. ; The manufacturing price of lithium-ion batteries fell by 1.5%, and the manufacturing price of new energy vehicles fell by 0.1%.
From a year-on-year perspective, PPI fell by 2.5%, and the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production fell by 3.0%, the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points; the price of living materials fell by 0.3%, the decline expanded by 0.1 percentage point. Price declines in major industries narrowed: the coal mining and washing industry fell by 15.6%, a narrowing of 0.6 percentage points; the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry fell by 7.1%, a narrowing of 3.3 percentage points; the petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry fell by 6.7% , narrowed by 2.9 percentage points; the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry fell by 5.0%, narrowed by 1.6 percentage points; the oil and natural gas extraction industry fell by 3.3%, narrowed by 7.3 percentage points. The above five industries collectively affected the PPI to fall by approximately 1.42 percentage points year-on-year, accounting for nearly 60% of the total decline. In addition, prices in the manufacturing industry of cultural, educational, industrial, aesthetic, sports and entertainment products increased by 5.7%, prices in the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 2.7%; prices in the manufacturing of new energy vehicles decreased by 4.5%, and prices in the manufacturing industry of computer communications and other electronic equipment decreased by 1.8%. %.
According to estimates, in the 2.5% year-on-year decline in PPI in September, the impact of tailing was about -0.2 percentage points, compared with -0.3 percentage points last month; the new impact of price changes this year was about -2.3 percentage points, compared with -0.3 percentage points last month. It was -2.7 percentage points.
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