Calcium carbide market opens down mode

With the introduction of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) maintenance plan in June, the bearish attitude in the calcium carbide market has intensified, and the market has started a downward trend. According to the latest data from SunSirs, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was 3,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) on June 5, a decrease of 150 yuan or 4.76% from June 2, and a year-on-year decrease of 31.30%.

"Due to the decline in the price of raw material semi-coke, the weakening of cost support, coupled with the weakness of the downstream PVC market, and weak demand support, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide will continue to decline in the short term under the combined effect, and cost support has become the key to determining the bottom position." Longzhong Information. Calcium carbide analyst Zhang Zhongying said.

Semi-coke cost support weakens

Calbium carbide raw materials such as semi-coke, lime and electricity account for more than 80% of the cost of calcium carbide. At present, there is no obvious fluctuation in the price of lime and electricity, which has little impact on the cost of calcium carbide.

However, the price of semi-coke has dropped significantly. In May, due to the overall high inventory of semi-coke enterprises, the overall price fell. According to reports, in late May, calcium carbide lowered the purchase price of small and medium semi-coke materials by 50 yuan, and the execution price of semi-coke materials in Fugu was 1,240 yuan. On June 1, the price of semi-coke in Fugu was lowered again.

"my country's semi-coke production capacity is mainly distributed in Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other places. Among them, Shaanxi semi-coke production capacity accounts for about 48% of the total production capacity. With the successive resumption of production in coal mines in Yulin, Shaanxi, the weak decline in coal prices has dragged down semi-coke The purchase price is lowered. At the same time, because the prices of semi-coke aniseed and coke noodles continue to fall, the losses of semi-coke companies have further aggravated, and the price of semi-coke is easy to fall but difficult to rise in the short term." Zhang Zhongying explained the price reduction of semi-coke.

Downstream demand is weak

In May, the PVC market, which is the main downstream of calcium carbide, was in a downward channel. Due to the continuous decline of PVC prices, the confidence in the calcium carbide market is insufficient, and the sluggish demand has become the focus of contradictions in the industrial chain.

The operating rate of calcium carbide PVC is a key factor affecting the consumption of calcium carbide. According to the data monitoring of Longzhong Information, in June, the centralized maintenance of the calcium carbide method PVC sample enterprises involved a production capacity of more than 4 million tons per year. Shi Lei, director of the PVC industry chain of Longzhong Information, said that the current PVC downstream products companies are running smoothly, and the operating rate of the companies is maintained at 40-50%. The inventory of PVC companies has declined limitedly, and the export price has been lowered. Both internal and external demand for PVC are in a sluggish state. After the launch of the PVC plant maintenance plan in June, the bearish attitude in the calcium carbide market has become more bearish. It is expected that the overall weakness of the market in June will not change.

Industry development returns to the supply and demand side

"A certain factor in the market may cause a short-term disturbance to the price of calcium carbide, but the development of the industry will eventually return to the fundamentals of supply and demand. When there is no increase in supply or production capacity exits, market opportunities will increase. When demand When there is an increase, the industry will develop healthily; when demand is weak, the market will not be able to return to the right track smoothly," Shi Lei said.

At present, the supply of calcium carbide market is basically stable. The production capacity of calcium carbide in the southwest region accounts for 4.83% of the total production capacity of calcium carbide, and Sichuan can supply it itself. Because calcium carbide is a dangerous cargo, it is restricted by the transportation radius. For example, it is difficult for calcium carbide in Xinjiang to flow out of Xinjiang, and it is also difficult for calcium carbide outside Xinjiang to enter Xinjiang. This ensures the stability of calcium carbide supply in the region to a certain extent.

However, since 1/3 of calcium carbide enterprises in China are equipped with PVC devices, and 2/3 of calcium carbide enterprises are not equipped with PVC devices, the maintenance in June will directly lead to an increase in foreign sales of calcium carbide, which will gradually replenish market sources and increase supply. Finally, the price of calcium carbide may be suppressed. At the same time, the continuous growth of ethylene-based PVC production capacity will continue to squeeze the calcium carbide-based PVC production capacity, resulting in reduced demand for calcium carbide, which will also restrain the rise in calcium carbide prices. (Wang Hongzhen)