In the first half of 2023, demand exceeded expectations, driving the polyester industry chain to perform relatively strongly in the overall chemical industry, and the growth of polyester not only came from the overall recovery of domestic demand, but also benefited from the substantial growth in exports and the early stage Take the initiative to go to the inventory replenishment elasticity under the inventory. In terms of varieties, PX has always occupied the main profit of the industrial chain, while PTA and MEG have a limited level of benefit restoration under the situation of relative surplus.
Export growth is impressive
This year, not only has the operating rate of the polyester industry picked up rapidly after the Spring Festival, but the production progress of various links has also been further accelerated, and the operation of the industry has returned to the normal state of previous years. In terms of production capacity growth, polyester production capacity in the first half of the year achieved an increase of about 6.5%, and the growth rate was close to the level of last year. The growth rate of polyester production reached 7% year-on-year, among which the growth rate of filament and staple fiber recovered significantly, while bottle flakes maintained the high growth trend of the past two years.
The reason is that we believe that the industry's initiative to reduce burdens and destocking at the end of last year, as well as the high demand for exports, have contributed to the rapid growth of polyester in the first half of this year. Since September last year, the textile and garment end has entered the stage of reducing the burden and destocking. Until April this year, there has been no significant accumulation of terminal inventory. Correspondingly, in the first quarter of this year, the polyester load did not increase further after running to over 90%. However, as the terminal entered the replenishment stage after May, the polyester load showed the characteristics of not being light in the off-season, and the load once hit a high point in the year.
In addition to the elasticity of demand magnified by low inventory, the export of polyester also has a considerable growth rate this year. In the first half of this year, the export of various polyester products was at a historical high, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 12%. In recent years, the clothing industry chain links represented by garment weaving have expanded to Southeast Asia and other regions, and such regions often still have a large supply gap in weaving raw materials. Therefore, from the perspective of the general trend, there is room for continuous improvement in the external demand for domestic raw materials. In addition, considering that India is the main place for the increase in the export of filaments, the catalyst for advance stocking under its BIS certification is also a major reason for the high export growth this year.
Differentiation of raw material production pattern
Returning to the supply side, the commissioning of various links is still continuing. There is an excess supply, and the industrial balance depends on load adjustment. In terms of private enterprises, Shenghong Refining & Chemical and Sanjiang Cracking Chemical Co., Ltd. have put into production, Hengli and Tongkun are expanding, and the two oil refineries are vigorously expanding the production capacity of PX and EG. Large-scale plants for various polyester raw materials have been put into production.
In terms of varieties, although the POY-Brent price difference has been significantly restored this year, the performance of each link is significantly different. As the most scarce link in the polyester industry chain, PX has occupied most of the industry's profits for a long time under the background of a relatively strong pattern of refined oil products at home and abroad and more self-repairs, while PTA is supported by PX in terms of price and start-up. There are obvious restrictions, but under the situation of surplus, it is difficult to have a sustainable and good performance in processing fees. Although MEG's profits have been restored, it is constrained by the suppression of high social inventory, and its structure has not strengthened significantly. From the perspective of industrial structure, PX-PTA, as a link with higher upstream and downstream concentration, continues to outperform MEG, which has a more dispersed market.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, the current inventory pressure of filament yarn and staple fiber is acceptable, and the industry's low inventory has entered the off-season, and the overall pressure is expected to be limited. However, considering that the European and American countries represented by the United States are under the destocking cycle, it is expected that terminal clothing consumption and exports will hardly resonate. In addition, the terminal inventory has been replenished to a certain extent compared with that after the Spring Festival, and the kinetic energy of replenishment may have weakened. At the same time, bottle flakes, whose production capacity utilization rate has been at a high level for a long time in the past, are in a big year of production. With limited demand growth and excess pressure, it is expected that after the release of new production capacity, it will be difficult to continue to maintain a high level of production. Therefore, the polyester load is expected to remain resilient in the short term. In the long run, polyester may be under pressure in stages under the pressure of exports, downstream replenishment and excess pressure on subdivided varieties.
In terms of raw materials, PTA and MEG still have some production plans. In contrast, PX has no clear production in the short term. Under the background that the overall polyester load is resilient and production continues, PX may continue to be strong. PTA's start-up and profit are limited and squeezed by PX, driven by phased changes in mainstream suppliers' equipment; MEG, although the overall oversupply has improved, is facing potential supply recovery in the process of profit increase, and the further recovery of valuation still needs to wait for the base of polyester production capacity further expansion.
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