According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic PTA market has recently shown a fluctuating and slightly upward trend after a short-term decline. Up 0.58%.
At present, the cost is still supported to some extent. Saudi Arabia and Russia have further promoted production cuts, the expectation of supply tightening remains unchanged, and the demand for gasoline in the United States has rebounded, and international crude oil prices continue to rise. As of July 25, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 79.63 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 83.25 US dollars per barrel. PX follows the strong oscillation of crude oil, PX is in the accumulation cycle, and the domestic PX start-up load is low, but the new production capacity of PTA on the demand side drives the release of new points, and the contradiction between PX supply and demand has not yet become prominent.
Judging from the recent changes in PTA's own equipment, restart and maintenance coexist, and the overall load has increased. The current operating rate of the industry is around 80%. In addition, Hengli Petrochemical Huizhou's 2.5 million tons new project is gradually mass-produced, and the supply side has increased.
In terms of downstream demand, the overall production of polyester maintains a high level of more than 90%. As the raw materials go up, the cash flow pressure of polyester factories increases, and the inventory pressure rises, among which the staple fiber inventory is at a high level. The terminal operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell slightly below 65%, and the operating rate of looms fell back from a high level. Therefore, the start of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to fall, polyester inventory and cash flow pressure rose, polyester load declined, and terminal negative feedback appeared.
Analysts from SunSirs believe that in the short term, the cost side is still positive, and crude oil and PX are still relatively strong. However, the pressure on PTA supply and demand is gradually emerging. With the restart of installations, more load increase and the release of new production capacity, the supply of PTA will be further loosened. In addition, in the off-season of terminal demand, downstream polyester cash flow and inventory pressure increase. Under the game of strong cost and weak supply and demand, PTA price shocks and adjustments in the market outlook will be the main ones.
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