A while ago, the butanol and octanol market soared again. The octanol market quotation exceeded 10,000 yuan in one fell swoop, and the butanol market quotation also returned to 8,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) after a few months of consolidation, approaching 8,500 yuan. It is popular among many chemical products. But recently, the butyl octanol market has fallen back. As of June 20, in the domestic mainstream market, the price of octanol was about 9,550 yuan, and the price of butanol was about 7,400 yuan.
Aiming at the recent shocks in the butanol market, Zhou Xiaohong, a senior economist at Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. who is engaged in market analysis, believes that it is mainly due to changes in supply. After the butanol plant of Luxi Chemical was shut down due to an accident, the market took the opportunity to speculate. On May 4 alone, the price of butanol rose by 1,000 yuan, and that of octanol rose by 1,200 yuan.
From the perspective of cost, the operating rate of domestic propylene plants fluctuated and increased in May. Propane dehydrogenation units such as Tianjin Bohua, Zhejiang Kingfa, Donghua Ningbo, and Qingdao Jinneng have restarted one after another. The supply of propylene has increased significantly, and the price has fluctuated downwards, which is linked to the correction of the price of butanol.
From the perspective of supply, in early May, the butanol production plant of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was shut down, and the domestic supply plummeted, resulting in tight cargo prices and high prices. In mid-to-late May, domestic octanol plants such as Tianjin Bohua, Lanfan Chemical, and Heze Dongfang were overhauled, and new butanol plants such as Ningbo Juhua and Ningxia Baichuan were put into operation, resulting in periodic fluctuations in local resource supply. On May 25, after the restart of leading enterprises such as Luxi Chemical Industry, the domestic supply of butanol and octanol increased, and the market bottomed out.
From the perspective of demand, the price of octyl alcohol soared rapidly in early May. The high price of octyl alcohol caused the cost of downstream plasticizers and other products to be under pressure.
For the market outlook, Zhou Xiaohong believes that in terms of cost, the cost support of raw material propylene is weak and the external supply continues to increase. On the supply side, facilities such as Luxi Chemical and Tianjin Bohua Yongli have resumed production, and the production of octanol in North China and Shandong has increased significantly; qualified n-butanol products from new facilities in Ningxia Baichuan and Ningbo Juhua have been put on the market one after another. On the demand side, downstream operations are insufficient, and the operating rate is generally weak. At the same time, the domestic and foreign price difference of butanol is nearly 2,300 yuan, and the price difference of octanol is more than 800 yuan. The export arbitrage window has been opened.
To sum up, under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the domestic butanol market will continue to bottom out due to the balance of domestic and foreign import and export resources and the demand for downstream replenishment. It is expected to stabilize in the middle and late August rebound. (Zhang Yifeng)
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