1. Price trend
According to the data from SunSirs, the price of aniline fluctuated strongly in the first half of July, and fell back to a high level in the second half of July. On July 1, the price in Shandong was 11,700-11,930 yuan/ton; the price of aniline in Nanjing was 12,300-12,500 yuan/ton; on July 28, the price in Shandong was 10,900-11,130 yuan/ton; the price of aniline in Nanjing was 11,350-11,800 yuan / ton, the average price of aniline this month fell by 7.43% from the beginning of the month, and rose by 5.02% from the same period last year.
Second, analysis and review
In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: due to the large number of downstream production units in the early stage, the scale of pure benzene has only increased slightly, the continuous supply of pure benzene is tight, domestic trade cargoes have decreased, and superimposed external high-level imports have decreased. stock status. However, due to the continuous wide decline of crude oil and the significant decline of pure benzene in the external market, external news support was weak. Coupled with the increase of down-load downtime and maintenance in the downstream, the demand follow-up is not good, and pure benzene is under pressure. The price of pure benzene at the beginning of the month was 9,509 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 9,026 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.08% this month and 9.93% over the same period last year.
Nitric acid: The price of domestic nitric acid went down step by step this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of nitric acid in East China was 2,950 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 2,750 yuan/ton. The price dropped 6.78% from the beginning of the month and rose 5.77% from the same period last year.
Due to the shutdown of some aniline plants in late June, the operating rate dropped significantly, and the factory inventory remained at a normal level. In addition, cost support still existed, and aniline fluctuated strongly in the first half of July. As the cost continued to drop and the demand from the downstream entered the traditional off-season, it was difficult to maintain the high price of aniline, and the price fell sharply in the second half of the month.
3. Outlook
In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: In the short term, pure benzene ports are still in a destocking state, but the market expects that the supply of pure benzene in August will be tight or eased, and the import of pure benzene will increase in the later period, and pure benzene may still fall.
Nitric acid: The raw material market of liquid ammonia is not good, and the shipment of nitric acid is not smooth. It is expected that the price of nitric acid will be weak.
The support of raw materials is weak and the downstream demand is not good. It is expected that aniline will continue its weak trend in August. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the cost trend, changes in downstream demand, and changes in the operating rate of aniline plants.
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