According to data released by the People's Bank of China on the 11th, at the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 287.3 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), an increase of 11.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.3% and 0.3% lower than the end of the previous month and the same period last year. 0.1 percentage point; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 69.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 10.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. In the first half of the year, the net cash injection was 78.9 billion yuan.
From the perspective of RMB loan data, the balance of RMB loans at the end of June was 230.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points lower than that at the end of the previous month, which was the same as the same period last year. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 15.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.02 trillion yuan year-on-year.
Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, pointed out that credit supply has picked up significantly in June, and credit will continue to expand steadily under the strengthening of policies. Under the high base effect of the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 continued to fall in June, but remained at a high level. First, credit supply picked up significantly in June, and credit derivatives are still strong; second, fiscal expenditures are relatively strong, which supports M2. Fiscal deposits in June decreased by 1.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 612.9 billion yuan year-on-year.
He also mentioned that new credit in June rebounded significantly, hitting a record high in the same period in history, both corporate and household loans increased significantly, bill financing decreased year-on-year, and the credit structure was significantly optimized. Driven by the end-of-the-half effect and policies, credit expansion accelerated again in June, and RMB loans increased by 3.05 trillion yuan in the whole month, an increase of 240 billion yuan year-on-year based on a high base, and a sharp increase of 1.69 trillion yuan month-on-month. Among them, in June, resident loans increased by 963.9 billion yuan, second only to the level in March this year, a substantial increase of 115.7 billion yuan year-on-year.
Wen Bin believes that activities such as the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and the mid-year shopping festival have played a supporting role in consumption, and the implementation of interest rate cuts has further stimulated consumer demand and led to a significant improvement in residents' loans. Although the decline in real estate sales in June expanded, under the phased slowdown of mortgage prepayment, residents' medium and long-term loans improved significantly compared with April to May.
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