Steel prices in Inner Mongolia are expected to fluctuate slightly in July

In June, the prices of major industrial production materials in Inner Mongolia fluctuated in general. Among them, the price of steel fluctuated slightly, the price of non-ferrous metals rose and fell, the price of chemical products stabilized and fell, the price of cement rose slightly, and the price of glass rose and fell. It is expected that in July, the price of industrial production materials in the whole region will still be stable and slightly fluctuating.

1. Price changes of major industrial means of production in Inner Mongolia

(1) Steel prices fluctuate slightly

In June, the hot and rainy weather increased, the downstream construction progress was slow, and the transactions in most markets were weak, and the steel market entered the traditional off-season of demand. However, stimulated by the improvement of macro expectations, the prices of superimposed raw materials such as iron ore and coke have stabilized and stabilized, and the center of cost has moved up again, causing steel prices to rebound, showing a trend of stabilization compared with last month. Among them, the comprehensive average prices of construction steel and ordinary plates in June were 3926.11 yuan and 4305.71 yuan per ton respectively. Compared with May 2023 (hereinafter referred to as the month-on-month period), the price of construction steel products increased slightly by 0.87%, and the price of ordinary plates decreased slightly by 0.48%; compared with June 2022 (hereinafter referred to as the same period), the prices of construction steel products and ordinary plates decreased respectively 18.86%, 17.57%.

Among other steel products, the average prices of round steel (φ16mm, HPB235) and stainless steel plate (1.2,304/2B cold-rolled) this month were 4107.50 yuan and 17316.67 yuan per ton respectively; Board prices rose slightly by 0.73% and 0.24% respectively; year-on-year prices fell by 16.88% and 8.11% respectively.

(2) The prices of non-ferrous metals are mixed

In June, the prices of non-ferrous metals in our district rose four times and dropped two times, among which the prices of copper, tin and nickel fluctuated significantly. Specifically, the average sales prices of copper (1# electrolytic copper, cathode copper), aluminum (AOO aluminum ingot), lead (1# lead ingot) in June were 68726.67 yuan, 19080.00 yuan and 15737.50 yuan per ton respectively. On a month-on-month basis, copper, aluminum, and lead prices rose by 4.48%, 2.69%, and 0.32% respectively; year-on-year, copper and aluminum prices fell by 1.94%, 7.37%, respectively, and lead prices rose slightly by 1.29%.

The average sales prices of zinc (0# zinc ingot), tin (1# tin ingot) and nickel (1#) in June were 20583.33 yuan, 217291.67 yuan and 178141.67 yuan per ton respectively. On a month-on-month basis, the prices of zinc and nickel decreased by 2.82% and 5.21% respectively, and the price of tin rose by 4.43%; year-on-year, the prices of zinc, tin and nickel decreased by 20.64%, 12.68% and 16.55% respectively.

(3) The prices of chemical products are stable and falling

In June, the average sales prices of high-pressure polyethylene (film grade) and polypropylene (drawing) were 11,200.00 yuan and 6,817.00 yuan per ton respectively. On a month-to-month basis, the price of high-pressure polyethylene was flat, and the price of polypropylene dropped by 4.56%; compared with the same period last year, the price of high-pressure polyethylene was flat, and the price of polypropylene dropped by 16.45%.

The average sales prices of polyvinyl chloride (produced by calcium carbide method) and fuel ethanol in June were 5,293.33 yuan and 6,000.00 yuan per ton respectively. On a month-to-month basis, the price of polyvinyl chloride decreased by 3.96%, and the price of fuel ethanol remained the same; year-on-year, the price of polyvinyl chloride decreased by 33.93%, and the price of fuel ethanol rose slightly by 0.70%.

The average sales prices of sulfuric acid (98% acid) and soda ash (industrial alkali content ≥ 98.5%) in June were 737.50 yuan and 2300.00 yuan per ton respectively. On a month-to-month basis, the prices of sulfuric acid and soda ash were flat; year-on-year, the prices of sulfuric acid and soda ash were flat.

(4) The price of glass rose and then fell, and the price of cement rose in general

In June, the average sales price of the three types of Portland cement in the region was 400.13 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 1.18% month-on-month and a decrease of 4.35% year-on-year.

The average prices of 5mm float flat glass and 5mm tempered flat glass in June were 32.54 yuan and 44.58 yuan per square meter respectively. On a month-on-month basis, the price of 5mm float flat glass increased by 1.49%, and the price of 5mm tempered flat glass decreased by 1.72%. Compared with the same period last year, the prices of 5mm float flat glass and 5mm tempered flat glass decreased by 4.67% and 7.86% respectively.

2. Prediction of the late price trend of some industrial production materials

(1) Steel

Domestically, the macro economy continued to recover and develop. In June, the manufacturing PMI rebounded month-on-month. The basis for the recovery is constantly consolidating, and it has also boosted market confidence, but we must also see that the pressure of demand contraction is still prominent, and the growth of major demand terminals for steel such as real estate and infrastructure is limited; in terms of exports, my country's steel exports are still showing an upward trend. The prosperity of the overseas manufacturing industry has declined, but in the face of weak domestic demand and the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, my country's steel exports still have momentum. On the whole, steel prices in Inner Mongolia are expected to fluctuate slightly in July.

(2) Non-ferrous metals

With the implementation of a series of domestic economic stabilization measures, although my country's economy is facing many uncertainties, the recovery growth trend is gradually emerging, especially the terminal industries related to new energy, such as photovoltaics, wind power, and new energy vehicles. Good operating situation, which has a positive effect on boosting the consumption of non-ferrous metals. At the same time, due to the positive momentum of the downstream terminal industry, the enthusiasm of enterprises for production has been enhanced, and the overall supply remains loose. Internationally, although the United States announced the suspension of interest rate hikes, which is positive for the macro economy, the economic recovery trend of major European and American economies is weakening, and the support for my country's industrial product exports has weakened. Based on a comprehensive analysis, under the background of global oversupply and the arrival of the off-season of traditional consumption, it is expected that the price of non-ferrous metals may drop slightly in July.