Recently, the isobutyraldehyde market, which has been silent for nearly three months, suddenly started. At the beginning of May, the price rose rapidly from around 7,400 yuan (ton price, the same below), and climbed to 10,400 yuan in a week, with the largest increase of 39.91%. As of May 16, the benchmark price of isobutyraldehyde was 9,200 yuan, an increase of 23.77% compared with the beginning of May.
Industry insiders believe that due to the shutdown of the main isobutyraldehyde plant, the short-term spot supply is tight, and the downstream purchases are active. Two factors have driven the isobutyraldehyde market to soar rapidly. Looking at the market outlook, under the influence of changes in supply and demand and weak cost support in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate slightly in the short term or fall.
Breakthrough ten thousand yuan for the first time in this year
"This is the biggest increase in the isobutyraldehyde market since the second half of last year." Gu Ping, a distributor of isobutyraldehyde in Liaoning, said, "Due to the lack of upstream propylene cost support in the middle of last year, downstream demand did not perform well. Under the influence of multiple bad news, the average price of isobutyraldehyde experienced a sharp drop from the line of 17,000 yuan, and fluctuated around 6,000 yuan for most of the second half of the year.”
The market performance of isobutyraldehyde is still flat this year. At the beginning of the year, as the price of propylene rose slightly, downstream manufacturers were active in purchasing isobutyraldehyde. The average price of isobutyraldehyde started to rise from the line of 6,700 yuan, and rose to about 8,700 yuan in early February. "However, the rising trend did not last. In late February, the average market price quickly fell to the line of 7,000 yuan, and then hovered around 7,600 yuan until the end of April." Gu Ping said, after the "May 1st", affected Affected by the emergency, the price of isobutyraldehyde rose sharply, from 7,433.33 yuan at the end of April to 10,400 yuan on May 8, an increase of more than 2,900 yuan, or 39.91%. This is also the first time that the price of isobutyraldehyde has broken through the 10,000-yuan line this year.
Sudden events lead to tight supply
On May 4, Luxi Chemical announced that the hydrogen peroxide device of Liaocheng Luxi Hydrogen Peroxide New Material Technology Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, had an explosion and fire accident. The specific resumption time is subject to scientific evaluation and determination. The industry believes that this incident has caused a certain impact on the isobutyraldehyde market and promoted the rapid rise of the market.
Baichuan Yingfu isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that the main manufacturers have parked their installations, and the supply of goods on the site has shrunk. The downstream neopentyl glycol and alcohol ester markets have a demand for isobutyraldehyde to replenish their positions, and the enthusiasm for market inquiries is not bad. , to push up the price of isobutyraldehyde in the short term.
In terms of downstream neopentyl glycol, after the "May 1st" holiday, some mainstream manufacturers raised their prices from 10,300 yuan on April 28 to 10,800 yuan on May 9, an increase of 4.87%. As the neopentyl glycol market has risen slightly, manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for production, and factories that have been shut down in the early stage have also restarted one after another, and the purchase of isobutyraldehyde is more active.
From the perspective of major manufacturers, Wanhua Chemical, Jiangsu Huachang, and Binzhou Zhanhua Yukai have raised the price of neopentyl glycol. At present, Wanhua Chemical Neopentyl Glycol is quoted at 11,300 yuan in Shandong, 11,400 yuan in East China (accepted and delivered), and 11,500 yuan in South China. This brings certain benefits to the isobutyraldehyde market.
Fundamentals are weakening and the rally is difficult to continue
For the market outlook of isobutyraldehyde, based on the overall judgment on the trend of fundamental changes, industry insiders believe that the current upward trend of isobutyraldehyde is difficult to continue, and there is a high probability that it will fluctuate and go down.
From the perspective of cost, the propylene market fell slightly, with the average market price falling from 7052.6 yuan on April 28 to 6912.6 yuan on May 10, a drop of 1.99%. According to Jia Fengqi, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, it is expected that the domestic propylene market may be weak and volatile in May. On the one hand, the supply pressure is expected to increase. In the near future, some propane dehydrogenation to propylene units in Shandong are scheduled to restart. If they can start up as scheduled, the supply of propylene on the site may increase significantly. The centralized restart of the previous maintenance units will bring impact to the market from the supply side. . At the same time, the demand side may continue to be weak, the spot market of polypropylene futures is weak, the start-up of powder equipment is low, and the enthusiasm of factories to purchase is not high; while the downstream acrylonitrile, butanol and other equipment continue to shut down for a short period of time, the demand follow-up is relatively limited. The weakening of upstream propylene cost support has a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.
Judging from the changes in the supply and demand of isobutyraldehyde itself, the price of isobutyraldehyde rose sharply in the early stage, driving neopentyl glycol to stop falling and rebound. However, the resulting cost pressure has also caused a slight decline in the profits of neopentyl glycol manufacturers, and the downstream coating market is in general. The enthusiasm of neopentyl glycol manufacturers to purchase isobutyraldehyde may gradually fade.
The weakening of upstream propylene cost support and the weakening of downstream demand for neopentyl glycol may lead to a reversal of the current tight supply and demand pattern in the isobutyraldehyde market. Isobutyraldehyde analysts from SunSirs believe that if there is no obvious positive support, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate slightly and decline in the short term under the influence of supply, demand and raw materials. (Li Dongling)
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