Since May, affected by insufficient supply, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen one after another, soaring from less than 100,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) to the current 148,000-160,000 yuan. Looking at the market outlook, raw material procurement is still difficult, lithium hexafluorophosphate production is still limited, and the overall supply of goods is still in a tight situation. Although downstream resistance to high prices is gradually rising, terminal demand is picking up, and the lithium hexafluorophosphate market continues to rise in the short term.
The market is out of the trough
In the first four months of this year, the domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate market was sluggish, the price has been falling all the way, the downstream electrolyte and terminal market demand are weak, and the upstream raw material lithium carbonate/lithium fluoride has accelerated the decline, and the market is full of bearish sentiment. Driven by demand, cost, and sentiment, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate continued to weaken, and some manufacturers shipped prices as low as 80,000 yuan to clear inventory.
"This price is in stark contrast to the historical high of nearly 600,000 yuan in early 2023." Dong Hongli, an analyst with lithium hexafluorophosphate at Longzhong Information, said that since the glory at that time, lithium hexafluorophosphate has started a journey of market decline. By 2023 At the end of the year, the price has dropped to around 230,000 yuan. Entering 2023, the sharp decline will continue.
After entering May, the lithium hexafluorophosphate market began to bottom out and rebounded, the continuous low market was restored, the trading atmosphere gradually improved, and the transaction center continued to rise.
"An important reason for the improvement of the lithium hexafluorophosphate market is the low operating rate of the industry. Affected by the downturn in the market before, manufacturers did not hoard too much raw materials. However, as the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream bottomed out, lithium salt factories were reluctant to sell. Lithium hexafluorophosphate The difficulty of raw material procurement has increased, and the overall operating rate of the industry has remained at about 30% to 40%. The tight spot supply has caused a temporary shortage of supply. In addition, manufacturers have destocked through production shutdowns, and the inventory has been basically cleared in late April. Therefore, in a short time The mismatch of supply and demand in China has helped the lithium hexafluorophosphate market to rise sharply, and the price has risen by more than 60,000 yuan in more than 10 days, an increase of more than 75%.” Dong Hongli analyzed.
Looking at the market outlook, the upstream lithium carbonate is reluctant to sell and waits for a rise. The operating rate of lithium hexafluorophosphate is unlikely to increase significantly. The supply continues to tighten, and the market still has room for growth.
The profit margin becomes larger
Industry insiders said that the once profitable lithium hexafluorophosphate industry has attracted more enterprises to invest in expanding production. With the release of new production capacity, the current industry supply and demand pattern has been broken, and competition has intensified, thereby suppressing prices and increasing profit margins. narrow.
According to the person in charge of the production company, the lithium hexafluorophosphate market has broken through the cost line after a sharp correction in the first four months, and the loss of products per ton in April was nearly 6,000 yuan.
ICC Xinyu information analyst Pan Leihui said that in May, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose due to the sharp rise in upstream lithium carbonate prices. At present, the raw material lithium carbonate continues the irrational upward trend, and the price increase has widened. Due to tight supply of lepidolite ore, firm price of spodumene concentrate, strong cost support for lithium carbonate, lithium salt factories are reluctant to sell at high prices, and traders take the opportunity to speculate, making the lithium carbonate market continue to rise.
In addition, driven by market sentiment, downstream inquiries are still hot, and follow-up is more timely. In addition, some buyers are optimistic about the market outlook, and there is also a small amount of advance stocking behavior, which drives up the price of lithium carbonate to a certain extent.
Because the price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate lags behind that of lithium carbonate to a certain extent, after the middle of May, the price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate was greater than that of the raw material lithium carbonate, and the profit situation has been greatly improved. The current profit per ton of products is close to 28,000 yuan.
Looking at the market outlook, the upstream lithium carbonate market is temporarily stable, and the overall trading is cautious. The short-term rise of lithium hexafluorophosphate may slow down, but the risk of a sharp decline is not great. Manufacturers may maintain a "profitable" state .
Demand picks up moderately
Teng Hongling, an analyst of Baichuan Yingfu Lithium Battery Industry Chain, said that the global new energy vehicle market has entered a heavy volume stage in the past two years, benefiting from the rapid expansion of the power battery market, and the downstream electrolyte market of lithium hexafluorophosphate has also experienced explosive growth, ushering in the heyday of the industry Expect. However, in the second half of last year and the first four months of this year, the demand for electrolyte was lower than expected, which led to a sharp drop in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate.
In May, the demand for new energy vehicles as a terminal ushered in a pick-up. Data show that in April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 640,000 units and 633,000 units respectively, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 times, and the market share reached 29.5%.
Teng Hongling and other people believe that the mild recovery of terminal demand has triggered a gradual increase in the level of electrolyte start-up, which has enhanced the lifting effect on the raw material lithium hexafluorophosphate. However, due to the rapid rise of raw materials and limited downstream acceptance, electrolyte manufacturers are cautious in purchasing and mostly wait and see.
In addition, because the price increase of the product is not as high as the cost increase, the profit margin of the electrolyte is narrowed, and it is currently only around 2,500 yuan. Electrolyte manufacturers cautiously covered their positions, and their output increased slightly.
As far as the market outlook is concerned, the substantial demand in the terminal market has increased, and the supply is still concentrated in leading companies, mostly delivering long-term contracts. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term electrolyte market price will closely follow the price trend of the raw material lithium hexafluorophosphate, but there is little room for increase. (Zhao Shuling)
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