April Market Review
With the gradual recovery of the economy in the post-epidemic era and the gradual subsidence of the price war, some of the previously suppressed consumer demand was released. The overall auto market in April continued to recover from the situation at the end of March. In April, the retail sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense of the Passenger Federation completed 1.624 million units. Affected by the low base caused by the epidemic in Shanghai and Changchun in the same period last year, it increased by 54.9% year-on-year and 2.1% month-on-month, showing a counter-seasonal growth. There were 525,000 new energy vehicles, an increase of 84.8% year-on-year, and a penetration rate of 32.3%.
The auto market got off to a good start in May
During the period of May 1st, there were many local auto shows, and the auto market maintained a relatively high level of enthusiasm. High discounts from manufacturers were combined with local promotional fee policies. The auto market got off to a good start in early May. The RDE postponement policy was officially implemented, the pressure on manufacturers to clear warehouses eased, and the overall auto market stabilized. Due to the early release of some customer demand at the beginning of the month, the terminal passenger flow and orders became weaker after the May Day holiday, and the market heat dropped considerably.
1. Manufacturer's sales trends
According to the survey, the overall market discount rate of passenger cars in mid-May was about 16.9%, the overall level of profit sharing was basically the same as that of last month, and the terminal price stabilized. The retail target of manufacturers accounting for more than 80% of the overall market increased by more than 5% month-on-month and by more than 20% year-on-year. It is preliminarily estimated that the narrow passenger car retail market this month will be around 1.73 million units, an increase of 6.6% month-on-month and 27.7% year-on-year. Among them, about 580,000 new energy vehicles were retailed, a month-on-month increase of 10.5%, a year-on-year increase of 60.9%, and a penetration rate of about 33.5%.
2. Weekly trend calculation
The retail sales of major manufacturers averaged 53,600 on the first week, 46% month-on-month and 67% year-on-year. The auto market got off to a good start. The second week averaged 47,300, 5% month-on-month and 44% year-on-year. After the end of May Day, the popularity of the auto market dropped. The average daily retail sales in the third week is expected to be 53,000, and the average daily retail sales in the fourth to fifth weeks is expected to be 72,500, a slight drop from the end of last month. It is comprehensively estimated that retail sales in May will reach 1.730 million vehicles.
The recovery of the auto market slowed down in March and May
In April, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 18.4% year-on-year, of which automotive consumer goods increased by 38.0% year-on-year due to the low base in the same period last year, a significant increase in growth rate compared with March, and the demand for upgraded consumption has been released. After May Day, the local epidemic rebounded slightly, but regional and large-scale epidemics did not appear, and no obvious social impact was produced. As the negative impact of the epidemic continues to fade, contact and travel consumption continue to recover and recover. According to the survey results of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of auto dealers in April was 1.51, a month-on-month decrease of 15.2%, and a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%. Terminal demand continued to heat up in April. In May, the high level of profit sharing by manufacturers combined with the local promotion fee policy, the enthusiasm of the auto market at the beginning of the month was significantly better than that of the same period in previous years. However, due to the early release of some consumer demand at the end of April and early May, passenger flow and orders have dropped to varying degrees after the May Day holiday, making it difficult to maintain High gains at the beginning of the month. On May 8, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments jointly issued a document, imposing a half-year sales transition period for models produced before July 1, 2023, whose RDE test report results are "monitoring only". The implementation of this policy has effectively alleviated manufacturers' non-RDE The pressure to clear the inventory of models can effectively avoid sharp fluctuations in market prices in the short term, and the seasonal trend of the auto market tends to be flat. The executive meeting of the State Council adopted the opinions on the implementation of new energy vehicles in the countryside, promoted the construction of charging infrastructure, and supported the purchase and use of new energy vehicles in rural areas.
To sum up, the retail sales of passenger vehicles in the narrow sense are expected to be 1.73 million in May, a month-on-month increase of 6.6%. Affected by the low base caused by the epidemic and supply chain damage in the same period last year, it will increase by 27.7% year-on-year; among them, new energy retail sales are expected to be 58.0% million vehicles, an increase of 10.5% month-on-month and 60.9% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 33.5%.
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