SunSirs commodity price forecast (May 9 2023)

The latest price of magnesium (5-8): 27433.33 yuan / ton, the market outlook is bullish

Analysis points: On May 8, the average price of the domestic magnesium ingot market rose by about 3,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Stimulated by news of Fugu Lantan's rectification over the weekend, the price of magnesium ingots rose sharply on the 8th. It is understood that on the morning of the 7th, the Fugu Bureau of Industry and Information Technology organized a meeting to promote the dismantling of semi-coke furnaces. It is reported that relevant policies will be issued on the 10th of this month, and semi-coke furnaces that do not meet the standards will be dismantled according to regulations. As soon as the news came out, magnesium ingot manufacturers sold at high prices one after another, and some manufacturers were reluctant to sell and did not offer prices for the time being. Affected by the policy, it is expected that the short-term magnesium ingot price will continue to rise strongly. However, there are not many transactions at high prices in the current market, and downstream users wait and see the market for the time being.

Forecast of the market outlook: Affected by the cautious attitude of customers on the demand side, the market outlook for magnesium ingots will also have limited room for growth.

The latest price of SC crude oil (5-8): 507.8 yuan/barrel, the market outlook is bullish

Analysis points: International crude oil futures rose strongly last Friday. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 71.34 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.78 US dollars or 4.1%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 75.30 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.80 US dollars or 3.9%. On Monday, the domestic crude oil market followed suit, and the main SC crude oil contract settled at 507.8 yuan/barrel, an increase of 3.80%. After the macro bearish sentiment is released, on the one hand, there is a demand for technical coverage in oil prices. More importantly, the positive U.S. employment data has eased market fears of a recession, while investors also generally believe that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate hikes in June. Oil markets got a boost.

Forecast of the market outlook: The oil market is still under pressure from the macro side in the near future, but the supply and demand side will support oil prices to recover the previous lost ground. As the driving season in North America is approaching, the demand for refined oil products will rise, and the expected growth momentum of Chinese demand will not change; , The current refinery maintenance season will reduce the inventory of refined oil products, and the contradiction between supply and demand will keep oil prices on the strong side.

The latest price of BDO (5-8): 12414 yuan/ton, the market outlook will fluctuate

Analysis points: The price on May 8 rose by 2.60% compared with the previous trading day. The domestic BDO market continues to be relatively strong, and the equipment of manufacturers is being overhauled one after another, and the overhaul takes a long time. Online auction prices are high, and the market atmosphere is booming. Manufacturers and traders are actively supporting the market, but the downstream demand of the terminal is average, and the ability to accept high prices is limited. The market operates at a high level but the trading volume is limited.

Forecast of the market outlook: the downstream will maintain contract follow-up, just need small order purchases, and the domestic BDO market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

The latest price of liquefied natural gas (5-8): 4048 yuan / ton, the market outlook is bearish

Analysis points: The price on May 8 fell by 6.12% compared with the previous trading day. Recently, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has been weak, and the price has continued to fall. At present, the market supply is sufficient, but the downstream replenishment situation is average, and the market trading atmosphere is light. A new round of raw gas auctions is imminent, triggering a wait-and-see mood in the industry.

Forecast of the market outlook: It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will be weak in the short term.

The latest price of coal tar (5-8): 2700 yuan / ton, the market outlook is bearish

Analysis points: The price on May 8 fell by 7.3% compared with the price of the previous trading day. Affected by the decline in the price of raw coking coal, the cost of coking enterprises has recently been low, and the start-up situation is relatively good. Although the start-up is slightly lower than that before the holiday, the overall operating rate remains above 75%. At present, the supply of coal tar is generally loose. The downstream deep-processing industry continued to decline after the festival, and the operating rate fell slightly. The demand for tar weakened. Affected by the decline in profits, the mentality of reducing the price of raw material tar was strong. The mainstream price in Shanxi this week is 2550-2650 yuan/ton, which is 300-400 yuan/ton lower than the previous auction price. The mainstream price in Shandong is 2,850 yuan/ton, which is 150 yuan/ton lower than the previous auction price.

Forecast of the future market: Although the downstream performance is not good, there is still rigid demand, but coke enterprises will not be able to reduce the follow-up operation, and the overall supply of tar is relatively loose, and the negative position still exists. SunSirs predicts that the tar market will remain weak, and will focus on the trend of downstream industrial naphthalene, coal tar pitch and other commodities in the future.

The latest price of praseodymium metal (5-8): 570,000 yuan/ton, the market outlook is bearish

Analysis points: On May 8, the decline was 6.56%. There are not many orders in the domestic terminal market, and large-scale manufacturers have obvious competitive advantages, and some small and medium-sized NdFeB enterprises have difficulty in operating. In addition, the operation of enterprises with export orders is not ideal. Due to the sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, buyers have serious resistance. The order situation of downstream magnetic material enterprises has remained sluggish. Most of the magnetic material factories mainly consume existing stocks. Some traders are worried about the market, and most merchants maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude. The rare earth market is under pressure.

Forecast of the future market: Recently, the production and supply of rare earth enterprises are normal, but the inventory is relatively high, and most of them are mainly digesting the inventory. The orders of downstream enterprises have not improved significantly. In addition, the economic recovery is slow. , The cost of enterprises is high, and there is a small amount of demand in the short term. It is expected that the decline in rare earth prices will slow down.