PTA narrow warmer operating logic

1. The operating logic of PTA narrow warmer range

PTA futures fell last week. The price of crude oil has fluctuated significantly, hitting the high point of the year, and the cost support is strong. Although the PTA supply-side equipment is overhauled, most of them are short-term stoppages, and the impact is limited. The polyester load on the demand side remains high, and the rigid demand for PTA remains high. The fundamentals of PTA supply and demand have not changed much. However, the near-delivery market is expected to increase spot liquidity, driving the market down.

Looking at this week, the supply side of crude oil continues to be positive, while US crude oil inventories are falling. Crude oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile and the price center will move upward. PX supply is expected to increase. There is also an equipment maintenance plan on the demand side, and the supply and demand of PX are booming. It is expected that the center of gravity of PX prices will move up slightly this week. There is a plant resumption plan on the PTA supply side, the supply side has increased significantly, and the polyester load on the demand side remains high. Although rigid procurement, PTA support is strong. On the whole, under the game of loose supply, cost support, and strong demand, it is expected that PTA will mainly run in a narrow range this week.

2. Ethylene glycol wide oscillation logic

Ethylene glycol futures maintain a range-bound operation, and the supply and demand structure of ethylene glycol has not undergone major changes, and the port arrival volume has been delayed. However, the risk aversion sentiment in the market has increased, and ethylene glycol is expected to be concentrated in the port in the later stage . Make ethylene glycol maintain range shock.

Looking forward to the market outlook, the supply side of crude oil continues to be positive, while US crude oil inventories are declining. It is expected that crude oil prices will remain highly volatile, and the price center will move upward, while coal prices are relatively weak, and the cost performance of ethylene glycol is acceptable. The fundamentals of ethylene glycol supply and demand have not changed much. During the week, Zhongke Refining and Chemical restarted after a short stop, Guoneng Yulin plant was shut down for maintenance, and Hubei Sanning plant maintained low-load operation after maintenance. In addition, the loads of Fude, Hainan and other plants were slightly adjusted. However, there is the possibility of concentrated arrival at the port, and there is a risk of accumulation of port inventory. Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate in a wide range this week.

Third, the logic of narrow-strength staple fiber

Last week, polyester staple fiber futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The price of PTA among the staple fiber raw materials fell due to the sufficient circulation spot, and the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated in a range. On the whole, the polymerization cost fluctuated and fell. From the perspective of the supply and demand of polyester staple fiber itself, the staple fiber device has not been adjusted, the overall load is high, and the supply is loose. On the demand side, spinning mills maintain a low operating level, and rigid procurement is the main focus, with only speculative replenishment by traders. On the whole, the cost is relatively loose and the fundamentals of supply and demand are in a game, and prices fluctuate within a narrow range.

Looking at this week, the supply side of crude oil continued to be positive, while US crude oil inventories fell. Crude oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile and the price center will move upward. PX supply is expected to increase. There is also an equipment maintenance plan on the demand side, and the supply and demand of PX are booming. It is expected that the center of gravity of PX prices will move up slightly this week. Under the game of loose supply, cost support, and strong demand, PTA is expected to operate mainly in a narrow range. The fundamentals of ethylene glycol supply and demand have not changed much, but there is a possibility of concentrated arrival at ports. It is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. The impact of the raw material end on the short fiber is too much. On the staple fiber supply side, the start-up load of the device has not changed much, and the supply of staple fiber is sufficient. On the demand side, the load of the spinning mill has declined, and the rigid demand for staple fiber is not good. On the whole, under the game of weak supply and demand and cost support, short-term polyester staple fiber will be mainly strong in a narrow range.