Since the end of February, the staple fiber processing fee has started to fall all the way, and the profit of the equipment has been continuously compressed, and once fell to a low level over the years. Most of the equipment suffered serious losses, which forced the factory to increase the scale of equipment maintenance. Recently, with the implementation of the equipment maintenance plan, the market supply has dropped significantly, and it is expected that the short fiber processing fee is expected to usher in a repair market.
Short fiber is the common downstream of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and ethylene glycol, and its price trend is highly correlated with PTA. Statistics show that the correlation coefficient between the price trend of PTA and staple fiber in the past year is as high as 0.96. Due to the general performance of demand, the price of staple fiber is not sufficiently stimulated, so that the fluctuation of staple fiber price mainly follows the cost side.
Since late February, PTA has started a wave of rising prices. On the one hand, its own supply and demand have improved, and upstream factories have raised prices, which has certain support for PTA; on the other hand, in the upstream of PTA, paraxylene (PX) The large-scale overhaul of domestic and foreign installations has strong support for PTA. Even under the influence of overseas risk events in March, PTA and PX continued to rise again after only a short-term adjustment. The price of upstream raw materials has risen sharply, and the lack of follow-up of terminal demand has led to the continuous squeeze of cash flow in the polyester sector, especially for filament and staple fiber devices.
More losses forced the short-fiber plant to shut down and reduce its burden. According to CCF statistics, as of April 19, the short fiber processing fee was 653.23 yuan/ton, and the equipment suffered a large loss. If calculated from mid-February, the short fiber processing fee has been reduced by nearly 500 yuan/ton until the processing fee hits a new low in the year. Although the processing fee has been slightly repaired recently with the increase in equipment maintenance, it is still in a loss stage. .
Since the end of March, news of production reduction and load reduction of staple fiber devices has been continuously spread. Among them, Jiangyin Huahong, Yizheng Chemical Fiber, Huaxi, Xintuo, Hengyi High-tech and other devices have entered the state of maintenance one after another, and the operating rate of staple fiber has also increased from The relative high of 78.73% in late March dropped to 70.72% on April 20, and the supply side shrank significantly, which provided some support for the restoration of short fiber processing fees.
In addition, the negative feedback of the terminal also restrains the upside of PTA at the cost side to a certain extent. Due to the sharp rise in the price of PTA in the early stage and the weakening of terminal demand, the loss of polyester filament and staple fiber is obvious, and the maintenance scale of filament and staple fiber has increased. Although the new polyester plant can hedge part of the maintenance loss, it does not rule out the impact of terminal demand. Continued negative feedback will further increase the maintenance scale of polyester plants, thereby reducing the demand for PTA, making PTA insufficient power to continue to rise, and a small part of the industrial chain profit is expected to be transferred to the downstream.
Weakness on the demand side may limit the space for repairing staple fiber processing fees. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods in March increased by 10.6% year-on-year. Among them, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, and knitted textiles increased by 17.7% year-on-year, reflecting the further recovery of domestic demand, but affected by the fall in overseas demand, the overall lack of new orders for textiles and clothing was dragged down. As of April 20, the number of days of orders for weaving enterprises for 12.11 days. Due to the negative feedback of terminal demand, the pressure on the downstream pure polyester yarn link of staple fiber has also gradually increased. The factory not only faces high inventory, but also has been greatly squeezed in cash flow since February. The later production reduction may be gradually put on the agenda to limit the processing fee of staple fiber Room for repair.
To sum up, with the increase in the maintenance scale of staple fiber equipment, the supply shrinks significantly, and the negative feedback of the superimposed terminal is uploaded to the PTA link. The power of PTA to continue to rise may be insufficient, and the cash flow may be transferred to the downstream. Therefore, it is expected that the staple fiber processing fee is expected to usher in a recovery, but subject to the downstream production reduction plan of the staple fiber, it is expected that the space for the staple fiber processing fee recovery will be limited. (Feng Xiaofen)
微信扫一扫打赏
