With the escalation of Sino-US trade war, MDI import and export will be affected?

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1. The impact of China's tariff increase on the United States on China's imports

In the "Announcement of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council on Imposing Additional Tariffs on Imported Products Originating in the United States of About 60 Billion Dollars" issued on September 18, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council announced that from 12:01 on September 24, 2018 From now on, 10% tariffs will be imposed on 2493 tax items listed in Annex 1 and 1078 tax items listed in Annex 2, and 5% tariffs will be imposed on 974 tax items listed in Annex 3 and 662 tax items listed in Annex 4. % tariff. Among them, polymeric MDI and pure MDI are in Annex 1 middle.

Influence on pure MDI:According to the statistics of Tiantian Chemical Network, in 2017, China imported a total ofPure MDI is about 70,000 tons, imported from the United States is more than 1,000 tons, imported from the United States pure MDI only accounts for about 1.5% of the total import volume, so China's import of pure MDI The impact of tariffs on pure MDI imports is limited.

Influence on polymeric MDI:According to the statistics of Tiantian Chemical Network, in 2017, China imported polymerized MDI is about 230,000 tons, and the import volume from the United States is more than 10,000 tons. The import from the United States is polymeric MDI only accounts for about 5% of the total import volume, so China's import of polymeric MDI The imposition of tariffs has limited impact on the import of polymeric MDI.

Second, the impact of US tariffs on China on China's exports

On September 17, local time, U.S. President Trump announced that he would impose a 10% tariff on Chinese products worth about $200 billion from September 24, and threatened to If the two countries fail to reach an agreement, the tariff rate will be raised to 25% from next year. Aggregated MDI appears in the list.

Impact on polymeric MDI: My colleagues published a recent Aggregated MDIMarket Dynamics Analysis" has a detailed analysis, and its main contents are as follows. According to the statistics of Tiantian Chemical Network, in the whole year of 2017, China exported about 560,000 tons of polymerized MDI, and the amount exported to the United States was more than 160,000 tons tons, and exports to the United States accounted for about 29% of the total exports. The main exporter is Wanhua. In 2017, Wanhua exported more than 130,000 tons of polymerized MDI to the United States; followed by Covestro, There are more than 6,000 tons; other manufacturers export to the United States in limited quantities. Therefore, Wanhua will be most affected if the United States imposes tariffs on China's polymerized MDI. However, if Wanhua transfers goods through Bosu, the export pressure will also be greatly reduced.