The editor will take you to see the downstream series – household refrigerators in black materials

Recently, the black material market has been hovering at the bottom, seemingly unremarkable, but if you think about it carefully, the space left by the low price of black material makes downstream customers go crazy at the price that the current foaming agent cannot afford There is a slight gasp on the rising pain. At present, although the price of black materials has fluctuated this year, the overall gap is not as large as last year, and the range is 16500-26000元 //tons (ex-factory in East China including tax). From the perspective of supply chain stability, the price without a sharp rise or fall is a great benefit for the development of downstream customers.

This year’s low prices are on a downward trend, so there is no need to say more about the increase in the supply side. Downstream this year, under the double blow of environmental protection and blowing agents, is also slightly weak. In the short term, everyone has a lot of expectations for the peak season of Gold, September and Silver October, but whether this year’s momentum in the field of home appliances will have a small climax like the same period last year, driving a wave of market rhythm, the editor here has a question mark.

So what do you think of the black material downstream market in the long run? In the long run, please see:

The editor will take you to see the official opening of the downstream series. Each issue will introduce you to a general development logic of the downstream, so that you can understand the various downstream developments of black materials. This issue will show you –Home refrigerator.

First of all, let me sort out the basic logic of the development of household refrigerators in the past ten years. Historical data speaks for itself. Please see the following 2008-2017 Inside domestic household refrigerators Sales trend chart:

 
From 2008 to 2011, thanks to the successive stimulus of policies such as “Subsidy Policy for Home Appliances to the Countryside”, “Trade-in Home Appliances” and “National Standards for New Energy Efficiency of Refrigerators”, the domestic demand for refrigerators has maintained a good momentum , the sales of refrigerators are increasing year by year, reaching the historical peak in 20115900Wantai. The stimulus of the policy, while accelerating the increase of domestic demand, also means that the demand for the next few years will be overdrawn in advance, so we can see the sales volume in 2011 Start to go down, this can also be reflected from the data of 100 refrigerators:
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	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Rural	30	37	45	62	67	70	73	76	78	80
Town	95	96	97	97	98	99	100	100	101	101

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Generally speaking, one refrigerator per household is the ceiling of the refrigerator market capacity, and the urban structure in 2008The penetration rate of refrigerators is actually very high, almost reaching the average household tower. On the contrary, the number of 100-person ownership in rural areas is quite low, so after the introduction of the policy of sending home appliances to the countryside, it ushered in explosive growth, from 100-person ownership30To67, an increase of up to 123%.
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After 2012 , the penetration rate of 100 households in rural areas has dropped, and the production of refrigerators in my country has experienced negative growth for the first time in ten years, indicating that after a series of policies, refrigerators in my country have been widely popularized. Under the ceiling limit of one unit per household , there is room for improvement in the number of refrigeratorsThe industry is huge, the ceiling of the industry is obvious, and the market has become saturated.

So,The development of refrigerators in 2012 mainly depends on the growth rate of the number of 100 people in rural areas.
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Next, the development of the domestic refrigerator market will basically rely on product upgrades and consumer upgrades. This time period will focus on the market share of high-quality, large-capacity refrigerators. Judging from the current situation, although there is still a certain market stock of two-door and three-door refrigerators, the growth of the four-door, five-door, and six-door refrigerators is stable; while the Shizimen refrigerator market is still in a period of rapid expansion. Consumers’ demand for volume increase is actually a good thing for black materials. The consumption of single black materials has increased, and the consumption of black materials in the overall refrigerator will also increase.

Finally, in summary, household refrigerators are durable consumer goods for the general public. On the premise that the population has not increased significantly, the development of household refrigerators in the past few years has relied on the penetration rate of refrigerators in rural areas. Recently and In the next few years, it will mainly rely on product technology and quality upgrades and consumers’ consumption upgrades.