One: The cold wave caused 60% of the MDI production capacity in the United States, 100% TDI capacity supply is limited
According to the National Weather Service, this time The Uri blizzard will bring “unprecedented” extreme cold and a state of emergency was declared in Texas this past Sunday, with the federal government adding aid to state and local response efforts. This snowstorm will continue. From the south to the northeast, deaths caused by snowstorms have occurred in Louisiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Missouri. More than 73 percent of the United States is covered in snow, with 150 million Americans under winter storm warnings, the National Weather Service said.
The Gulf of Mexico is bordered by Mexico The Gulf states include Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. In the past week, rare low temperatures and snowstorms have hit the Gulf of Mexico. The production and operation of the MDI, TDI, and HDI factories located there have been seriously affected:
American cold wave on MDI/ Production loss of TDI: So far, the force majeure shutdown of MDI and TDI production units in the United States caused by cold weather has lasted for a week. Despite news reports that the frost on the Gulf Coast began to ease on February 19, even though we hereby expect the above MDI/TDI production units to restart within the next 5-10 days, returning to normal operating levels may require longer time. Here we calculate the resulting production loss based on the 3-week period. The MDI production loss is about 48,000-64,000 tons (about the total production of all domestic MDI manufacturers in 5 weeks), and the TDI loss is about 1.5-64,000 tons. 20,000 tons (about the total production of all domestic TDI manufacturers in two weeks).
The extreme cold weather in the United States is Impact of MDI/TDI supply side
*Amount of MDI/TDI imported and exported from the United States by China from January to December 2020 .
Exacerbating the contradiction between supply and demand in the global consumer market:Table above It can be seen that in the whole year of 2020, the amount of MDI exported from the United States to China accounted for less than 1% of China’s total overseas imports of MDI; About 15% of the total. Overall, China’s direct dependence on the supply of MDI and TDI manufacturers in the United States is relatively low. However, the production suspension and production reduction caused by the weather in the US factories this time have made global isocyanate, which was originally in a tight supply. In the supply market, especially in European and American countries, the contradiction between supply and demand is more prominent.
Before the cold weather in the United States, the production of some MDI manufacturers in Europe and the United States The start-up state of the device has been unstable for several months. In the next 3-5 months, some European TDI/MDI manufacturers have plans for device maintenance. It can be expected that the tight supply situation will continue from the fourth quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year.
From the perspective of consumption, March to May is the traditional peak season for the Chinese consumer market , demand will increase from the previous quarter. Assuming that during this period, the production devices of domestic TDI and MDI manufacturers are operating normally to ensure domestic demand; however, the obvious overseas supply gap is expected to reduce the supply of overseas manufacturers to China, and at the same time there will be a certain proportion of domestic production support Overseas consumer market.
In general, the isocyanate manufacturers’ production equipment caused by the cold wave in the United States this time Force majeure will exacerbate the supply shortage of global MDI and TDI. And it is unclear when the balance between supply and demand will be restored.
Second: cold wave causes US 100% PO production capacity, 50.4% PPG production capacity limited supply
In addition to MDI and TDI, polyether rings�� has also been greatly affected.
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Currently released news includes:
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Indorama Ventures’ 238,135 ton/year propylene oxide plant; Clear Lake, Texas 435,000 tons/year ethylene oxide plant. It is necessary to mention here that in early January, Indorama Ventures has completed the acquisition of Huntsman Group’s chemical intermediates and surfactants business for US$2 billion.
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The deal also enables Huntsman to focus on its growing polyurethane business in the future.
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The deal includes Huntsman manufacturing in Texas, Australia and India business. Indorama Ventures has acquired most of the business in Port Neches, Texas, including a 235,867 t/y mixed feed cracker; 1 million t/y ethylene oxide (EO)/unitEthylene Glycol (MEG) plant and a Propylene Oxide/MTBE plant which also produces surfactants and amines.
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Announced February 18 in Deer Park, Freeport, Texas The production of various intermediate chemicals in Northwest City and Bayport, as well as Hahnville, La., and Louisville, Kentucky, suffered force majeure. Dow has notified South American customers of the situation.
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As China’s main source of cyclopropane and polyether imports, the US PO plant is subject to The impact rate reached 100%, and the PPG device reached 50.4%, and the market heard that some foreign devices were repairing plans, and the supply was bound to become tighter.
Third: Jiji Amine supply hit hard, HDI range under pressure
Invista, Texas two Adiponitrile and two hexamethylene diamine plants, as well as Ascend’s adiponitrile and hexamethylene diamine plants in Alabama, around Texas, were severely affected at the same time, and the two hexamethylene diamine giants declared force majeure at the same time. These factories account for 65% and 50% of the global production capacity of adiponitrile and hexamethylenediamine respectively. The road is long.
The main raw material of HDI series products is The supply of diamine has been hit hard, and suppliers are under enormous pressure both in terms of cost and supply. After the year, some downstream coating companies gradually started to resume production, but suppliers were cautious in their offers, and the transaction volume shrank sharply. The supply of goods held by middlemen was very limited, and the intention to sell at low prices was obvious. Look at the market price has a strong upward trend.
In a word, this cold wave has great impact on polyurethane raw materials It is a big challenge for the market. MDI, TDI, PO, PPG, etc. have different levels of influence, and all of them have caused a tight supply situation. Continue to pay attention to the follow-up developments.
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