On the evening of July 28, 2022, Wanhua Chemical released the report for the first half of 2022. The "Report" mentioned, "In the first half of 2022, the international environment will become more complex and severe. At the end of February, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine triggered a sharp rise in global energy prices. The domestic epidemic spread in multiple places, which brought unexpected disturbances to the global economy. Polyurethane sector: on In the first half of the year, the global polyurethane operating rate rebounded, the inventory remained high, and the supply and demand of global MDI and other markets were basically balanced. Affected by factors such as weakness and continued high inflation, demand growth has slowed down."
July is the traditional off-season for the domestic aggregated MDI industry. However, in July this year, under the pressure of the complex and challenging environment at home and abroad, the domestic polymeric MDI demand market was "slower in the off-season", which can be seen from the weak bottoming of the polymeric MDI price in July: The market price bottomed out from 17,500-18,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 15,800-16,000 yuan/ton in the middle and late this month.
Although in the first half of this year, the price level of domestic polymeric MDI was higher than that of the same period in 2020, but in July, the price accelerated downward. It was originally thought that with the unblocking of Shanghai in June, the demand suppressed by the blockade would be restored and rebounded. However, the "slow" market in July and the uncertain situation at home and abroad made everyone wonder about the demand for domestic hard-bubble downstream industries in the market outlook. Uncertainty and worry about end-to-end improvement are thickening, like "summer bugs" that are difficult to "speak ice".
Looking forward to August: supply side:At the beginning of July, Shanghai manufacturers installed routine maintenance, and in the second half of July, some factories installed Reduced load operation, in the whole month of July, the overall operating rate of domestic manufacturers dropped significantly. In August, with the completion of the overhaul and restart of the plants of Shanghai manufacturers, the overall domestic start-up load may rise slightly from the previous month. low load operation). To sum up, we expect that the overall tone of MDI suppliers in August will focus on narrowing the gap between supply and demand and releasing suppliers' inventories. Price side: In August, the listing price of polymeric MDI in Wanhua Chemical China was 18,500 yuan/ton. In early August, Wanhua Chemical implemented a buyout price of 17,000 yuan/ton for the domestic polymeric MDI distribution market. Mainstream manufacturers lowered their listing prices in August and buy-out prices in the first half of the year according to the market, but they are higher than the current market prices. It can be seen that manufacturers are showing a stable attitude towards the domestic market next month. Combined with the fact that the current aggregated MDI market price has hit a low point in nearly a year, if the demand side is moderately positive, the market price may stop falling next month and come out of the low level of consolidation.
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