Propylene oxide increases within a narrow range! Is the National Day stocking signal already on?

First of all, I will give you an inventory of the maintenance and restart of the cyclopropane device in September:

1. Jishen will be shut down for maintenance on July 5th, and will restart around September 17th
2. Dasawa Chemical will be overhauled at the end of July and is expected to restart at the end of September or early October
3. Sinopec Changling stopped for maintenance in late August and restarted on September 15
4. China Overseas Precision will be remodeled at the beginning of November 2021 (production capacity will increase to 80,000 tons), and the restart time is to be determined
5. Sinochem Quanzhou will stop for maintenance on September 13 and is expected to open in late September
6. Hongbaoli’s parking technology reform in May (production capacity increased to 250,000 tons), restart time to be determined
7. Yida announced on September 12 that the trial production was successful. Promote project acceptance

In general, cyclopropane installations fluctuated frequently in September, and the supply side was either supported or under pressure. Ridge continued to increase its burden, Yida produced qualified products, and the pressure on cyclopropane inventory continued to increase. However, since the Mid-Autumn Festival, the performance of orders received by factories has been flat, and terminal enterprises have purchased small orders with a long digestion cycle, and the market has been sluggish.

Cyclopropane went around and around, and the shock fell below the 10,000 yuan mark (for details, refer to the editor's "Propylene oxide: Going around and returning to 10,000 yuan/ton" article), as of September 20, the Shandong factory offered 9700-9800 yuan/ton. In the afternoon of Wednesday, the market heard the news that major polyether manufacturers had increased their prices, and the trading volume in Shandong area heated up, and the short-term orders received by factories were good. Cyclopropane took advantage of the situation to increase to 9800-9900 yuan / ton. Lacking the conditions for a rapid rise in the early stage, the movement of this wave of gains is relatively small, and the price rise is a bit difficult. The reason for this wave of increase is as follows:

1. Although the supply side is under pressure to a certain extent, as the profits of cyclopropane continue to shrink (see the profit performance in the figure below), manufacturers have a clear attitude towards the market and are still Occupy the dominant discourse power.

2. Golden September and Silver October" superimposed the atmosphere of the National Day holiday, driving the release of some polyurethane demand, The mentality of the downstream is slightly different, and the stock is carefully stocked, and the purchase is mainly for immediate needs.

3, Overseas, especially in the European market, the price of raw materials is soaring, the exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar has broken "7", and manufacturers have a greater export advantage.