Since mid-June6, the domesticBDO and associated industry chain market has presented Falling off a cliff,BDOThe overall market price fell by more than 12000yuan/tons; downstream productsTHFprice drop exceeds 25000yuan/tons; PTMEGover 2000yuan/t. The specific reason has been introduced in the previous article by the editor. Those who are interested can pay attention to the previous articles of the official account of Tiantian Chemical Network for details.
Before and after the Mid-Autumn Festival,BDOThe market is running strongly, and the overall trend is obviously rising. The main reason is that due to the rising trend of the spandex industry on the demand side, and the maintenance and replacement of many manufacturers on the supply side, the overall industry start-up load remains low. As of2022year9month13Daily, the reference price of bulk water in East China is:11000-11600yuan/ Tons, bulk water acceptance delivered.
2020-2022YearBDOEast China Sanshui average price chart
From the perspective of the supply side, since September9, due to the stable prices of raw materials such as methanol, maleic anhydride, and calcium carbide, BDOProfits have been significantly shrunk by falling prices,BDOIndustry giants Markor Chemical and Inner Mongolia Dongyuan Technology have not put into production new devices as expected. In addition, large factories such as Lanshan Tunhe and Xinjiang Cathay Pacific9 have entered the stage of annual maintenance or replacement every month, and the overallBDOThe industry start-up load is about51.8%about. The overall BDOindustry supply support is good, but with the overhaul of various manufacturers will be late September The end, plus the recent price increaseBDOmarket profit margin recovery, is expectedSeptemberThe industry will start in the second half of the month The load will be at a high level, and the supply support will not be as obvious as it is currently.
2022year9month13JapanBDOManufacturer Device News
From the demand side, the downstream slurry, sole liquid andTPUindustry due to the entry of the terminal downstream shoe material industry2022It has been in a downturn since the past year, and it is difficult to have a rising trend. Therefore, the overall demand follow-up is maintained, and the support for demand is weak. BDO-THF-PTMEGThe main downstream spandex industry of the industrial chain has entered the country’s cooler temperature and the textile industry has entered the peak season. The overall industry operating rate has gradually increased. Therefore, the overallBDO-THF-PTMEGindustrial chain demand has improved significantly. However, the epidemic situation in Sichuan and Chongqing is now serious, and the recurrence of the epidemic situation in various parts of the country has caused people to be satisfied.Without going out, and the new crown epidemic is bound to become more rampant in autumn and winter, it is expected that the demand side will hardly increase significantly in the long run.
In terms of import and export,2022July7Customs import and export volume compared with the previous month It was flat, with a slight increase overall, and the import volume has fallen sharply compared with the pre-epidemic period in March, so the overall impact on domestic sales is small. On the export side, due to repeated domestic epidemics and a large number of stockpiles, manufacturers’ prices have fallen, and a large number of domestic sales have been stranded and turned into foreign trade. Therefore, the export volume of BDO has increased significantly compared to last year.
To sum up, although both the supply and demand sides are strong recently, the price ofBDO has rebounded sharply. However, in the long run, the follow-up of this rally is weak and lacks strong support. Therefore, in the short term,BDOThe market is expected to pick up to Sanshui12000yuan/ about tons, in the long run it is expected to remain weak even at 12000yuan/Ton has dropped on a basic basis.
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