Global supply continues to be positive, TDI continues to jump

Since8Since the month,TDIby15000Yuan/ Ton rose to 25000Yuan/More than tons, the increase is almost70%, and there is an obvious trend of continuing to accelerate the rise.

Figure1:2022year8month-10YuehuadongTDIMarket average price

RecentTDIAccelerating the rise, the main reason is that the positive support on the supply side has not faded, but has intensified:

This round of rising market began8At the beginning of the month, Covestro Europe announced force majeure, declaring BASF Europe30Ten thousand tons/Year, Covestro Europe span>3010,000 tons/ The average annual shutdown is mainly due to the European energy crisisTDIThe production cost has increased significantly.

9Month26Day,"Beixi ”An explosion occurred at the location of the natural gas pipelineThe market generally expects that the problem of natural gas supply in Europe will be difficult to alleviate in the short term, when EuropeTDIIt is more difficult to restart the device, and the supply gap may exist for a long time.

10month10On the 10th, the market rumored that Shanghai Covestro will be launched31 Ten thousand tons/YearTDIDevice temporarily shut down due to failure.

On the same day, Wanhua Chemical announced , which is located in Yantai's3110,000 tons/yearTDIThe installation will be on10June11The production will be shut down for maintenance on the 11th, and the maintenance is expected 45about days, higher than the market's previous expectation30Day.

At the same time, due to the epidemic situation in Xinjiang, Xinjiang JuliTDIThe logistics is slow and the delivery period is greatly extended.

Gansu Yinguang original plan may be held11Restarted at the end of the month1510,000 tons/yearTDIDue to the epidemic situation in Baiyin, Gansu, the progress of the project has been affected, and the restart time may be extended.

And this is just the supply-side good that has happened, and there are still a batch on the way:

Korean Hanwha Corporation1510,000 tons/year TDIThe installation will be on10Month24Day Carry out maintenance.

BASF Korea2010,000 tons/yearTDIThe installation will be on1010 span>It will be overhauled at the end of the month.

Shanghai Covestro3110,000 tons/yearTDIDevice1111 span>Monthly maintenance and maintenance expectations.

Current roundTDIThe price broke through the previous high20000Yuan span>/ton has already exceeded the expectations of many industry players, and what everyone did not expect is that, In less than a week after the National Day, TDIaccelerated to 25000Yuan/ Tons and above, with hardly any resistance in the middle. At present, many industry players no longer predict the peak of this round of rise, because the previous predictions have been easily broken down many times,

As for how high the ultimate will rise this round, we can only wait and see.

As for how high the ultimate will rise this round, we can only wait and see.