2022Full Year Review:
2022The overall BDO market price in 2022 showed a trend of weak decline, and the operating range of the BDO market in 22 years was 9375-27940 yuan/ton. It opened at 26,723 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and ended at 9,375 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a year-on-year growth rate of -69.7% from the end of 21. At the beginning of 22, the BDO market continued its high trend for 21 years. However, due to the impact of the economic environment, from the end of March to August, due to the continued sluggish downstream demand, downstream construction continued to decline, especially the three major downstream PTMEG-spandex, PBT , The GBL-NMP industry chain has mostly entered the off-season of demand, and the BDO market has been falling all the way. Although there was a recovery until the end of the year, the overall trend of the market in 22 years has been basically determined. As of the end of December 22, with the easing of the epidemic policy and the limited supply on the market due to the low start-up of the supply side, the BDO market has rebounded to about 9,700 yuan/ton.
2023New Year’s Outlook:
Let’s first look at the recent settlement situation: Lanshan Tunhe BDO settlement price in January 2023—East China 10400, South China 10600, listing price in February 2023—East China 12000, South China 12200 (Unit: yuan/ton, delivered by bulk water acceptance), it can be seen that the manufacturers on the supply side have a clear attitude towards the market. Since the Spring Festival in 23 years, manufacturers have maintained a low operating rate, and the supply in the market has remained tight. In the status quo, some manufacturers closed their orders without reporting and waiting for guidance, and a small number of manufacturers quoted high prices. The current market trading situation is mainly based on contract orders. Some downstream factories just needed small orders to follow up, which further boosted market confidence. As of January 31, 2023, the reference price of bulk water in East China is: 12,500-12,800 yuan/ton, and the bulk water will be delivered upon acceptance.
The follow-up BDO market trend is expected to be relatively strong. In the short term, the spot supply in the market is still relatively tight, and factories are reluctant to sell. The most important thing to determine the market price in the near future is the seller. With the slow recovery of downstream factories after the festival, it is expected that BDO prices will fluctuate strongly in the future, and then maintain a balance between supply and demand.
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