In the first three quarters of 2022, China’s GDP will grow by 3.0% year-on-year. In the fourth quarter, due to the short-term disruption of production activities brought about by the change of epidemic prevention policy, the contraction of the total overseas demand of the global economy further appeared, the domestic economic recovery process slowed down, and the annual GDP growth rate may be lower than 3.0%.
In 2022, China’s MDI market will be under pressure. The supply and demand of MDI both fell, and the market price “first went up and then went down”, fluctuating and going down.
China MDI Market Price
In 2022, China’s MDI market will show “first high and then low”. Taking aggregated MDI as an example, from the highest position of 21,200-21,500 yuan/ton in January, it fluctuated downward to 13,500-14,000 yuan/ton in December. This range is the lowest position in the market this year. The price range within the year is 7500-7700 yuan/ton.
China MDI Capacity & Output
By the end of 2022, the total production capacity of MDI (distillation) in China will reach 4.41 million tons per year, and the new production capacity comes from the commissioning of a new 400,000 tons per year MDI device in Fujian, Wanhua Chemical in late December. In 2022, China’s actual operating total production capacity of MDI will be 4.01 million tons per year, and the average operating rate will decrease by about 5 percentage points compared with the previous year. Therefore, the total annual MDI output will decrease year-on-year. The decline was mainly due to the impact of Shanghai’s epidemic prevention and control on manufacturers’ production in the first half of the year, as well as the decline in overall downstream consumption.
China MDI Import and Export
According to the latest data from China Customs, from January to November 2022, China’s total MDI import volume decreased by 7.6% year-on-year; total export volume decreased by 0.4% year-on-year. In terms of exports, in 2022, the export volume of polymeric MDI from China to the United States will drop significantly, mainly due to high inflation in the United States, which will lead to weakening demand in the downstream construction industry. The increase and decrease of China’s exports to European countries have been mixed. Affected by the high energy prices in Europe, local production facilities have reduced their load and production, and the supply of goods from China has been deployed to supply the local consumer market. However, the downstream construction industry consumption from Europe has also weakened. Nevertheless, China’s export performance in 2022 still has bright spots for growth. For example, China’s exports to Middle Eastern countries such as the United Arab Emirates will grow at a relatively high speed, mainly because the national government benefits from higher crude oil sales revenue and has increased local construction. Project investment…
China MDI Consumption
In 2022, China’s consumption of polymeric MDI and pure MDI will both show a year-on-year decline.
Polymeric MDI: In 2022, the total domestic consumption of polymeric MDI will decrease by about 5% year-on-year. The main reason is that the production and sales of refrigerators and freezers, the largest downstream industry of aggregated MDI, were greatly affected by the decline in overseas export demand, and the output fell by more than 10% year-on-year. In the construction sector, due to factors such as the closure and control of the epidemic, the pressure on macroeconomic operations, and the reduction in investment project expenditures, consumption from construction-related industries such as pipelines and styrofoam has declined to varying degrees. In contrast, the growth rate of the formaldehyde-free wood-based panel industry has slowed down compared with the previous year, but it still maintains double-digit growth. The high level of refrigerated containers has fallen, and the future development of the cold chain industry is still promising.
Pure MDI, China’s total consumption of pure MDI in 2022 will decline more than that of polymeric MDI. The main downstream industries of pure MDI—shoe sole solution, pulp and TPU industry, are subject to the reduction of downstream consumption of the terminal, so the consumption of raw materials has shown a decline to varying degrees, and the performance of the spandex industry is relatively flat…
Looking forward to 2023, with the adjustment of the domestic epidemic prevention policy, the domestic economic growth rate is expected to pick up, consumer confidence and end product consumption are expected to recover, and there is also a moderate growth expectation for the MDI downstream industry. In the medium and long term, the new domestic MDI expansion projects will be built as scheduled or included in the plan, and the domestic MDI market is still expected to maintain growth.
Catalog of “2022 Asia-Pacific MDI Market Research Report” (Part)
Part III: Global MDI Market
3.1 Global MDI Supply Market
3.1.1 Global MDI manufacturers
3.1.2 2018-2022 Global MDI Capacity Review
3.1.3 2023-2027 Global MDI Capacity Outlook
3.1.3.1 Global MDI under construction, proposed projects and progress
3.1.3.2 2023-2027 Global MDI Capacity Development Outlook
3.2 Global MDI demand market
3.2.1 2018-2022 Global MDI Demand Review
3.2.2 Major downstream industries of global MDI from 2018 to 2022
3.2.3 2023-2027 Global MDI Demand Outlook in Major Regions
Part 4: MDI Market in Asia Pacific
4.1 Review and Prospect of MDI Supply in Asia Pacific
4.2 Review and Prospect of MDI Demand in Asia Pacific
Part Five: China MDI Market
5.1 China’s MDI supply market
5.1.1 2018-2022 Production Capacity of MDI Manufacturers in China
5.1.2 Production of MDI manufacturers in China from 2018 to 2022
5.2 China MDI import and export
5.3 China’s MDI demand market
5.3.1 Review of China’s MDI demand in 2018-2022
5.3.2 Aggregated MDI
5.3.2.1 2018-2022 demand for polymeric MDI in China
5.3.2.2 Household appliances (refrigerators, freezers, water heaters, etc.)
5.3.2.3 Refrigerated container
5.3.2.4 Construction (sheets, coatings, piping)
5.3.2.5 Cars
5.3.2.6 Wood glue
5.3.2.7 OCF Styrofoam
5.3.2.8 Adhesives and sealants
5.3.2.9 Other
5.3.3 Pure MDI
5.3.3.1 2018-2022 pure MDI demand in China
5.3.3.2 TPU
5.3.3.3 Sole solution
5.3.3.4 Slurry
5.3.3.5 Spandex
5.3.4 MDI-50
5.3.5 Liquefied MDI
5.3.6 China’s MDI demand market outlook
5.3.6.1 2023-2027 China Polymerized MDI Demand Market Outlook
5.3.6.2 2023-2027 China’s Pure MDI Demand Market Outlook
5.4 China’s MDI market price and profit
5.4.1 China’s MDI market price
5.4.2 Prices of MDI manufacturers in China
5.4.3 Market prices of main raw materials for MDI in China
5.4.4 Production cost and profit of MDI in China
5.5 China’s MDI market price forecast in 2023
…
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