Polyurethane demand: wait until the clouds bloom to see the moon, and wait for the flowers to bloom

2023 The year is over halfway, domestic demand shrinks, supply shocks, Although the triple pressure is expected to weaken, the growth momentum is not strong, and the economic recovery is weaker than expected. In this context, extensive Polyurethane materials used in furniture, automobiles, home appliances, construction, clothing, shoe materials, luggage and other fields performed tepidly, and the index of raw materials such as isocyanate and polyol remained low and fluctuated.

Household industry

2023 Market review for the first half of the year: The real estate market is still in a period of deep adjustment. In the first quarter, driven by factors such as the concentrated release of the backlog of demand and the emergence of early policy effects, the market activity increased. Especially from February to March, there was a "Xiaoyangchun" market in hot cities. However, as the backlog of demand was basically released, in the second quarter, Homebuyers' home buying sentiment declined rapidly, real estate policies were not as strong as expected, and the market failed to continue its recovery. In June, the policy had a certain positive effect in response to market sentiment, but its substantial impact on new home sales was relatively limited. The furniture industry is mainly affected by the real estate control policy and the downturn of the market economy. The market continues to be weak and there is no obvious recovery trend.

2023 The second half of the year has favorable policies: On July 6, the Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference. Shu Jueting, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the Chinese government attaches great importance to expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption. Home furnishing consumption involves many fields, the upstream and downstream chains are long, and the scale is large. Taking targeted measures to boost it will help drive the growth of residents' consumption and economic recovery. Recently, the Ministry of Commerce, together with relevant departments, drafted a policy document to promote household consumption on the basis of in-depth research, and put forward specific measures in terms of improving supply quality, innovating consumption scenarios, improving consumption conditions, and optimizing the consumption environment.

Automobile industry

2023 Market review for the first half of the year：�As my country's epidemic prevention and control enters a new stage, the automobile industry, as a bulk consumer product, has become the focus of local governments to stimulate domestic demand and stimulate consumption. Although some people in the auto industry are optimistic about the Chinese auto market in 2023, this optimism has not yet been reflected in the actual market. The auto market has not shown a "good start", and the auto industry is still facing a relatively large demand problem.

The auto market kicked off in March with vigor and vitality "Price war", price cuts one after another. The auto industry has improved since April, the market is still in the slow recovery stage, and the industry's efficiency level is at a low level. Due to the successive promotion policies issued by the country and various regions, the end-of-season momentum of car companies, and the continuous growth of sales and exports of new energy vehicles, they jointly promoted the growth of both production and sales in the passenger car market in the first half of the year. From January to June, the production and sales of passenger vehicles were 11.281 million and 11.268 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 8.1% and 8.8% respectively. Significant growth in passenger cars. Under the dual effects of the '618' promotion and the Dragon Boat Festival, the turnover rate increased, and the auto market performed better than expected in June, boosting confidence to a certain extent.

2023 The second half of the year has favorable policies: On June 2, 2023, the State Council executive meeting studied policies and measures to promote the high-quality development of the new energy vehicle industry. In order to release the consumption potential of new energy vehicles to a greater extent, the meeting proposed to continue and optimize the vehicle purchase tax reduction and exemption policy for new energy vehicles. This measure will also promote the sustainable and steady growth of the new energy vehicle industry.

white electricity Industry

2023 Market review for the first half of the year:The overall home appliance market has fallen into a new cycle of inventory and quantification, and the performance of refrigerators is not satisfactory. From late December 2022 to May 28, 2023, the offline retail sales of refrigerator products in the domestic market increased by 0.17% year-on-year, but the retail volume fell by 5.63% year-on-year; the retail volume of online refrigerator products increased by 4.06% year-on-year during the same period. The retail sales fell by 3.53% year-on-year. Judging from the production schedule in June, the refrigerator market is gradually bottoming out.

2023 The second half of the year has favorable policies: On June 9, 2023, four departments including the Ministry of Commerce and the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued "About Doing a Good Job in 2023 The Notice on Promoting the Consumption of Green Smart Home Appliances proposes to coordinate and organize green smart home appliance consumption promotion activities; carry out in-depth home appliance trade-in; solidly promote green smart home appliances to the countryside; implement home appliance after-sales service improvement actions; strengthen the recycling of waste home appliances. This notice is another powerful measure to promote the consumption of green and smart home appliances, carry out comprehensive and in-depth product changes, and promote improved consumption after July 2022.

The mild recovery of the macro economy is gradually transmitted to the downstream market of polyurethane, especially the good performance of automobile exports The performance is effective in stimulating demand growth. As the policy effects of automobiles, furniture, and home appliances continue to appear, consumer confidence will be further boosted, and demand will be further released, which will help repair and promote the polyurethane raw material market.

The current international environment is still complicated, and insufficient consumer demand is still an important constraint. Furthermore, the current exchange rate of onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar has both regained the 7.17 mark. The strong rebound of the renminbi reduces the competitiveness of exports, the upstream and downstream industries of polyurethane are under pressure, and there are still many challenges in business operations. It is necessary to maintain stable and predictable policies to help the industry run smoothly.

Believe Keep the clouds open to see the moon, wait for the flowers to bloom !

The current international environment is still complicated, and insufficient consumer demand is still an important constraint. Furthermore, the current exchange rate of onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar has both regained the 7.17 mark. The strong rebound of the renminbi reduces the competitiveness of exports, the upstream and downstream industries of polyurethane are under pressure, and there are still many challenges in business operations. It is necessary to maintain stable and predictable policies to help the industry run smoothly.

Believe Keep the clouds open to see the moon, wait for the flowers to bloom !