2015 is coming to an end. In the closing year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, reviewing the ups and downs of the polyurethane raw Get ready for your first year. Tiantian Chemical Network hereby launches a series of market analyst interview reports, from a professional and authoritative perspective, to interpret the current situation and feel the pulse of the future.
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First interview guest—Santao ConsultingMarketing Manager of Chinese Business Department Guo Maomao
Bachelor degree in chemical engineering, with 2 years working experience in propylene oxide and chlor-alkali factories and 3 years experience in polyurethane market and industry research, currently in charge of TDI, HDI and OTDA, MDI-50 market research.
Rich experience in research projects, including “Global TDI-100 Market Research”, “PO Competitor Analysis”, “Market Research on Polyurethane Compounds for Automobiles”, “TDI\MDI Competitor Survey “, “2008-2012 Global Isocyanate Market Research” and other research reports.
Participated in many industry conferences and made analysis reports, and made a report on “2014 Polyurethane Foam Raw Material Market Review and Prospect” at the “2015 Plastics Processing Industry Association Xiamen Polyurethane Foam Industry Chain Conference”, “2014 Plastics Processing Industry Association Hangzhou Polyurethane “2013 Polyurethane Foam Raw Material Market Review and Prospect” report, “2014 China Polyurethane Association Shanghai Annual Conference” “2014 China Polyurethane Raw Material Overview” report, etc.
Motto: Life is a constant battle!
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Reporter: So far this year, please briefly introduce the overall situation of the polyurethane raw material market and the market operation of TDI.
Guo Maomao: The overall decline in polyurethane raw materials this year, and major products have basically fallen to historical lows. There are many reasons for this. First, the decline in crude oil has driven the decline in raw materials; “Normal” mid-range speed; finally, after the large-scale expansion of production in the polyurethane industry in the past ten years, the supply and demand side has changed, from the original shortage to oversupply; the above are the main factors of the market downturn, at the same time, the country’s capacity reduction and industrial structure Promoted by optimization policies, the transfer of low-profit labor-intensive and environmentally polluting downstream industries has also compressed demand growth.
Among them, TDI, one of the polyurethane raw materials this year, has almost fallen all the way to a low level rarely seen in recent years. Since the beginning of the year, domestic TDI factories have been under huge cost pressure, and at the end of the first quarter they all began to reduce production and control volume one after another, making the on-site prices in the Slowly rise in the short term. But at the end of the second quarter, under the off-season and under the pressure of inventory, the price has been falling all the way, and the price on the market once hovered within 11,000-12,000 yuan/ton.
The price of TDI in the domestic market this year has fallen, mainly due to the impact of this year’s economic environment, the overall economic growth continues to slow down, and the domestic real estate market demand The downturn has restricted the downstream production of furniture and paint, and the growth rate of automobile production has also slowed down. In addition, the export situation of related furniture is not good, which has led to the reduction of orders of some downstream enterprises, or even shutting down. This year’s development has been particularly difficult.
Reporter: At present, there are some problems such as overcapacity, sluggish demand, and falling quotations in the market. As an analyst who has followed the market for many years, what is his predictive view on the market outlook?
Guo Maomao: The chemical industry is a traditional industry. Historically, every new material will have the following development stages, from short supply (high profit)-high-speed expansion-oversupply-industrial integration-maintaining stability (low profit) five stages. At present, my country’s polyurethane industry is in the stage of oversupply in a short period of time, but we estimate that it will take 3-4 years to digest new production capacity and eliminate backward production capacity; that is to say, the relationship between supply and demand will not change before 2020.
As far as the TDI industry is concerned, it is currently in the stage of oversupply, and the industry’s profits are at the lowest point in history. As far as the current economic situation in China and the world is concerned, it is difficult for the downstream demand of TDI to grow well in the short term, and the excess production capacity is between 2-3 Expected within the year�� Difficult to digest. The entire industry is about to enter a period of integration and elimination. In the future, the scale and integration of TDI factories will be an inevitable trend. Some companies with small production capacity and weak upstream and downstream product lines Factories are bound to be eliminated. During the phase-out period of industry consolidation, it is expected that market prices and factory profits will be at a relatively low level.
Reporter: It is about to enter the 13th Five-Year Plan, and new chemical materials are still the focus of development. As polyurethane, what do you think is its development prospect, or where is the future growth point of polyurethane?
Guo Maomao: Although the supply of polyurethane raw materials exceeds demand in the short term, from the perspective of the material itself, it is still a high-performance emerging material; compared with developed countries, there is still a gap in per capita polyurethane consumption; the current global per capita PU consumption is 1.8KG , It is estimated that by 2025, the global per capita consumption will reach 2.7KG, and the growth will mainly be concentrated in China, India, Africa and other underdeveloped regions. The per capita consumption in developed regions such as Europe and the United States is 4.5KG, and China’s current per capita consumption is 1KG. Especially with the development of the economy and the improvement of people’s consumption level, polyurethane products such as environmental protection, comfort and high weather resistance have great room for development in the future.
Reporter: For the downstream field of polyurethane, which area of development prospects are you more optimistic about, please talk about it in detail.
Guo Maomao: I personally think that the downstream field of polyurethane has a good development prospect in my country in the future. But the premise is to increase the upgrading of application technology, and low-end and ordinary products are facing saturation; comprehensively, I am more optimistic about the environment-friendly CAS market and the thermal insulation field.
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