On August 31, 2023, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, made an interpretation.
In August, the manufacturing purchasing managers index was 49.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.0%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but continued to be in the expansion range; the comprehensive PMI production The export index was 51.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall level of my country's economic prosperity remained stable.
1. Manufacturing purchasing managers index rebounded for three consecutive months
In August, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.7%. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the PMIs of 12 industries rose month-on-month, and the manufacturing industry's prosperity level further improved.
(1) Synchronous recovery of production demand. The production index and new order index were 51.9% and 50.2% respectively, up 1.7 and 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, both of which were highs in the past five months. In particular, the new order index rose to the expansion range for the first time since April. Industrial production activities accelerated, and market demand improved. From the perspective of industry, the production index and new order index of agricultural and sideline food processing, chemical raw materials and chemical products, automobile and other industries are all higher than 53.0%, and both production and demand are relatively active.
(2) The willingness of enterprises to purchase has increased. Driven by the improvement of manufacturing production and market demand, corporate procurement activities have accelerated recently, and the procurement volume index rose to 50.5%, 1.0 percentage points higher than last month. From the perspective of industry, the purchase volume index of chemical raw materials and chemical products, automobiles and other industries and the import index reflecting the changes in raw material imports both increased month-on-month, and were at a relatively high operating level of above 53.5%.
(3) The price index continued to rise. With the recent rise in the prices of some bulk commodities and the acceleration of corporate procurement activities, the overall level of manufacturing market prices has rebounded. The purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials increased by 4.1 and 3.4 percentage points from the previous month, respectively 56.5% and 3.4%. 52.0%, of which the ex-factory price index returned to the expansion range. From the perspective of industry, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials in the agricultural and sideline food processing, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries are at a high level of more than 60.0%, with a month-on-month increase of more than 7.0 percentage points.
(4) The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises all picked up. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and it was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, and the prosperity of large enterprises rose steadily. The PMIs of medium and small enterprises were 49.6% and 47.7% respectively, up 0.6 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the level of prosperity continued to improve. From the perspective of production and demand, the production index and new order index of large and medium-sized enterprises are both in the expansion range, and both ends of production and demand are growing at the same time; although the two indexes of small enterprises are below the critical point, they have rebounded more obviously from the previous month.
(5) The confidence of enterprises has increased. The production and business activity expectation index was 55.6 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and it has been in a relatively high economic range for two consecutive months, indicating that with the recent intensive introduction of a series of macro-control policies and measures, enterprises have further strengthened their confidence in market development. From the perspective of industry, except for the textile industry, the production and operation expectation indexes of other industries are all in the boom range, especially the agricultural and sideline food processing, automobile and other industries are in the high boom range above 60.0%, and enterprises are relatively optimistic about the development prospects of the industry.
The survey results also show that insufficient market demand is still the main problem facing enterprises, and the foundation for the recovery and development of the manufacturing industry needs to be further consolidated.
Second, the non-manufacturing business activity index continues to expand
In August, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.0%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the non-manufacturing industry maintained an expansion trend.
(1) The service industry continues to recover. The business activity index of the service industry was 50.5 percent, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, still higher than the threshold, and the service industry continued to expand. From the perspective of industry, this month's summer vacation consumption is still relatively obvious in stimulating the growth of the service industry. The business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and public facility management, culture, sports and entertainment and other industries has been at 55.0 for two consecutive months. The business volume continued to grow rapidly. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 57.8%, which continues to maintain a relatively high level of prosperity. Most service industry companies are more optimistic about the future development of the industry, including retail, postal services, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services and other industries. The business activity expectation index is above 60.0% in the high-level boom range, and enterprises have strong confidence in the recent market development.
(2) The prosperity level of the construction industry picked up. The business activity index of the construction industry was 53.8 percent, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the production activities of the construction industry accelerated. In terms of industry, the business activity index of the civil engineering construction industry was 58.6%, 4.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month; the new order index was 52.6%, rising to the expansion range, indicating that the construction progress of infrastructure projects has accelerated, and the market demand for the civil engineering construction industry improve. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 60.3%, which continues to be in the high-level boom range, and construction companies have good expectations for the recent market development.
Third, the comprehensive PMI output index rebounded slightly
In August, the comprehensive PMI output index was 51.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to remain in the expansion range, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises have generally expanded steadily. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, were 51.9% and 51.0% respectively.
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