On April 11, at the 2023 Petrochemical Industry Development Conference held in Beijing, Sun Weishan, vice president of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, released the "2023 Key Petrochemical Product Capacity Early Warning Report".
When Sun Weishan released the "Report", he said that what needs special attention in the future is that the development trend of domestic petrochemical and basic chemical integration is more obvious. Since entering the "14th Five-Year Plan", products such as olefins, aromatics, polyolefins, polycarbonate, titanium dioxide, 1,4-butanediol (BDO), propylene oxide, polyether polyols and lithium iron phosphate are still expanding production During the peak period, production capacity continued to maintain rapid growth, and the supply capacity of major petrochemical products was greatly improved. It is expected that in 2023, the operating rate of ethylene, polyethylene and other products with a large gap will increase; the operating rate of oil refining, chemical fertilizer, methanol and other devices will basically be the same as that in 2022; soda ash, BDO and titanium dioxide will be due to new production capacity. The capacity utilization rate of styrene-butadiene-styrene copolymer (SBS), polycarbonate, ethylene glycol, and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) remained low, and the operating rate of equipment continued to decline.
Sun Weishan reminded: "The products that should be focused on in 2023 are propylene, ethylene glycol, p-xylene, PTA, BDO, titanium dioxide, polypropylene, polycarbonate, propylene oxide, phosphoric acid Lithium iron, etc."
The "Report" pointed out that in 2022, affected by factors such as macroeconomic slowdown, rising energy prices, and unexpected recurrence of the epidemic, among the 28 industries and products that the Petrochemical Federation focuses on monitoring, the capacity utilization rate will There are 9 industries and products that have improved compared with the previous year, accounting for 32%; 2 industries and products whose operating rate has remained basically stable, accounting for 7%; the capacity utilization rate of 17 products has declined, accounting for 61%. Most products have overcapacity.
my country's primary processing capacity of crude oil ranks first in the world for the first time
In 2022, my country's crude oil primary processing capacity will increase by 25.5 million tons per year, reaching 918 million tons per year, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. The crude oil primary processing capacity will surpass that of the United States for the first time, ranking first in the world. The annual crude oil processing volume was 676 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. Affected by factors such as the inability to fully release new production capacity, the average operating rate of primary crude oil processing equipment decreased by 6.3 percentage points year-on-year to 73.6%. In 2022, the total output of refined oil (gasoline, coal and diesel) will be about 366 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. It is estimated that my country's total crude oil processing capacity will reach 930 million tons per year in 2023, and its position as the world's largest oil refining country will be further consolidated. With the return of demand for refined oil and the continued growth of chemical oil, it is expected that the average utilization rate of my country's primary crude oil processing equipment in 2023 will be basically the same as that in 2022 or increase slightly.
Basic petrochemical raw materials are still at the peak of production capacity, and the production and supply capacity has been further improved
Ethylene: A total of 5 new ethylene plants will be completed and put into operation in 2022, with a new production capacity of 5.25 million tons/year, and a total production capacity of 46.75 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, surpassing the U.S. (ethylene) for the first time. The total production capacity is 44.82 million tons/year), becoming the world's largest ethylene country, with an output of 41.68 million tons, an increase of 11% year-on-year. It is estimated that 5.6 million tons/year of new production capacity will be put into operation in 2023, and the total production capacity will reach 52.2 million tons/year. The domestic ethylene self-sufficiency rate will further increase. It is estimated that by 2025, my country's ethylene production capacity will reach about 70 million tons per year, and the output will reach about 58 million tons, which can basically achieve self-sufficiency, but it is necessary to consider the possible impact of low-priced ethylene products in the Middle East and North America on the Chinese market.
Propylene: In 2022, the domestic propylene production capacity will increase rapidly, with a total of 5.74 million tons/year new production capacity, and the total production capacity will reach 56.68 million tons/year, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year; the output will be 43.338 million tons, a year-on-year increase 4.4%. 2023-2025 is still the peak stage of propylene production capacity, and the propylene production capacity with PDH as the production route.In 2 years, my country's SBS production capacity decreased slightly, from 1.62 million tons/year in the previous year to 1.59 million tons/year; the output was about 877,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%; the average operating rate of the device was 55.2%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points. Although the production capacity will decrease slightly in 2022, judging from the development in recent years, the demand growth is generally lower than the production capacity growth rate. At present, there are 8 projects proposed by SBS and under construction, with a total production capacity of 635,000 tons/year. Among them, 3 projects are planned to be completed and put into operation in 2023. It is estimated that the new capacity will be 165,000 tons/year, and my country's SBS production capacity will reach 1.755 million tons/year. With the recovery of market demand, it is expected that the plant operating rate will increase.
Nitrile rubber: In 2022, the new production capacity will be 35,000 tons/year, reaching 275,000 tons/year, an increase of 14.6%; the output will be 235,000 tons, an increase of 18.2% year-on-year; , an increase of 2.6 percentage points. It is estimated that in 2023, the industry will add 35,000 tons/year of new production capacity, and the total production capacity will reach 310,000 tons/year.
The production capacity of polyurethane raw materials has increased greatly, and industrial structural contradictions have begun to appear
Propylene oxide (PO): In 2022, the production capacity will increase by nearly 800,000 tons, an increase of 19.1%, and the total production capacity will reach 4.902 million tons per year; the output will be 3.91 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%; Most of the new production capacity was put into operation at the end of the year, which lowered the annual capacity utilization rate, which fell by 10 percentage points year-on-year to 79.8%. From 2023 to 2027, the existing and proposed production capacity is 10.468 million tons per year. It is estimated that my country's PO production capacity will reach 8.06 million tons per year in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 64.4%. A large number of new production capacity will be released in a concentrated manner, and the capacity utilization rate will fluctuate greatly in the short term.
Polyether polyol (PPG): 675,000 tons/year new production capacity in 2022, 395,000 tons/year exit capacity, net increase of 280,000 tons/year, total production capacity reaches 7.41 million tons/year; the output was 4.3 million tons, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year; the average operating rate of the devices was 58%, which was basically the same as that of the previous year. In 2023, it is estimated that the new polyether polyol production capacity will total 1.345 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, and the total production capacity will reach 8.2 million tons/year.
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