In August, the prices of Inner Mongolia’s main industrial production materials generally showed a slight fluctuation trend. Among them, the price of steel fluctuated slightly, the price of non-ferrous metals rose and fell, the price of chemical products was stable with an increase, the price of cement fell slightly, and the price of glass rose slightly. It is expected that in September, the prices of industrial production materials in the region will remain stable with slight fluctuations.
1. Price changes in Inner Mongolia’s main industrial production materials
(1) Steel prices fluctuate slightly
August is still in the hot and rainy season, and the infrastructure operating rate is easily affected. The steel market demand is weak, and the prices of raw materials continue to rise. The production of steel companies is stable with some decline. Under the combined influence of multiple factors, steel prices were relatively stable in August. Among them, the comprehensive average prices of construction steel and ordinary plates in the region in August were 3,950.69 yuan and 4,381.27 yuan per ton respectively. Compared with July 2023 (hereinafter referred to as month-on-month), the prices of construction steel products were basically the same, and the prices of ordinary plates increased slightly by 0.55%; compared with August 2022 (hereinafter referred to as year-on-year), the prices of construction steel and ordinary plates decreased by 6.87% respectively. %, 5.04%.
Among other steel varieties, the average prices of round steel (φ16mm, HPB235) and stainless steel plates (1.2,304/2B cold-rolled) in the region this month were 4,095.00 yuan and 17,333.33 yuan per ton respectively; month-on-month, the price of round steel was slightly fell by 0.23%, and the price of stainless steel plates rose slightly by 0.43%; year-on-year prices fell by 6.99% and 7.61% respectively.
(2) Prices of non-ferrous metals fluctuated up and down
In August, the prices of various types of nonferrous metals at monitoring points in Inner Mongolia rose four times and fell two times. Specifically, the average sales prices of copper (1# electrolytic copper, cathode copper), aluminum (AOO aluminum ingot), and lead (1# lead ingot) in August were 69,706.67 yuan, 19,045.00 yuan, and 16,504.17 yuan per ton respectively. Month-on-month, the prices of copper, aluminum, and lead increased by 0.40%, 0.75%, and 2.17% respectively; year-on-year, the prices of copper, aluminum, and lead increased by 11.09%, 0.44%, and 4.93% respectively.
The average sales prices of zinc (0# zinc ingot), tin (1# tin ingot), and nickel (1#) in August were 21,258.33 yuan, 223,583.33 yuan, and 173,866.67 yuan per ton respectively. Month-on-month, the price of zinc increased by 1.68%, while the prices of tin and nickel decreased by 4.06% and 0.29% respectively; year-on-year, the price of tin increased by 9.42%, and the prices of zinc and nickel decreased by 16.63% and 6.58% respectively.
(3) Chemical product prices are rising steadily
In August, the average sales prices of high-pressure polyethylene (film grade) and polypropylene (drawn wire) were 11,200.00 yuan and 6,651.00 yuan per ton respectively. Month-on-month, the price of high-pressure polyethylene was flat, and the price of polypropylene increased by 2.53%; year-on-year, the price of high-pressure polyethylene was flat, and the price of polypropylene fell by 17.89%.
The average sales prices of polyvinyl chloride (produced by calcium carbide method) and fuel ethanol in August were 5,631.33 yuan and 6,000.00 yuan per ton respectively. Month-on-month, the price of polyvinyl chloride increased by 5.13%, and the price of fuel ethanol remained unchanged; year-on-year, the price of polyvinyl chloride fell by 11.32%, and the price of fuel ethanol rose slightly by 0.84%.
The average sales prices of sulfuric acid (98% acid) and soda ash (industrial alkali content ≥98.5%) in August were 737.50 yuan and 2300.00 yuan per ton respectively. The prices of sulfuric acid and soda ash were both stable month-on-month and year-on-year.
(4) Glass prices rose slightly and cement prices dropped slightly
In August, the average sales price of three types of Portland cement in the region was 392.23 yuan/ton, a month-on-month price decrease of 1.40%, and a year-on-year price decrease of 2.71%.
The average prices of 5mm float flat glass and 5mm tempered flat glass in August were 33.04 yuan and 45.08 yuan per square meter respectively. Month-on-month, the price of 5mm float flat glass and 5mm tempered flat glass increased by 0.50% and 0.87% respectively; year-on-year, the price of 5mm float flat glass increased by 2.90% and the price of 5mm tempered flat glass fell by 2.76%.
2. Forecast of later price trends of some industrial production materials
(1) Steel
On the macro side, favorable policies have been continuously released. The central bank has lowered interest rates, various regions have continued to relax home sales thresholds, and existing mortgage interest rates have been lowered. The overall macro sentiment is still good; on the demand side, in September, as the hot and rainy weather passed, infrastructure construction sites used The demand for steel is gradually released, and the automobile and home appliance industries are also ushering in the traditional peak season of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten", and steel demand will also rebound; on the supply side, the blast furnace operating rate has declined month-on-month, steel companies have increased maintenance plans, and the price of raw materials has been high, and the supply side will continue to be under pressure, and steel production may be further tightened. Comprehensive analysis shows that under the multiple effects of continued positive macroeconomic policies, steady tightening of production and supply, and a rebound in demand, it is expected that the center of gravity of steel prices in Inner Mongolia may shift slightly upward in September.
(2) Non-ferrous metals
In August, the overall national economy continued to recover steadily, with the manufacturing PMI rebounding to 49.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and a slight rebound for three consecutive months. On August 21, seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Non-ferrous Metal Industry", which will further promote the sustained and healthy development of the industry and is of great significance to ensuring supply and stable prices of key non-ferrous metal products.
At present, major varieties such as non-ferrous metals, copper and aluminum, are still in low inventory despite being in the off-season, showing the resilience of demand in the non-ferrous metal industry. With the advent of the peak season for traditional industries, favorable policies such as superimposed and stable growth are gradually implemented. With the acceleration of the economic recovery process and multiple favorable factors, the demand for non-ferrous metals has steadily rebounded. It is expected that the price trend of non-ferrous metals will be stronger in September.
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