On the morning of September 30, the National Bureau of Statistics released that China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) in September was 50.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range.
Business News published an article on September 13, “Manufacturing PPI turned positive for the first time this year on a month-on-month basis. Business News BCI predicts the economy may pick up.” According to the monitoring of Business News, Business News’ BCI increased significantly for two consecutive months in July and August. The red color reflects the expansion of the manufacturing economy. According to the SunSirs Commodity Price Index BPI, since July 2, 2023, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30-day moving average and started an upward trend, and the current two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction, indicating that the BPI has entered an upward channel, which also reflects the macro The economy will go up. This article predicts for the first time that the macroeconomy will stabilize and recover in 2023.
Compared with the manufacturing PMI in September, which showed that the economy has returned to the expansion range, the BCI of Business Society in August was one month ahead of schedule, anticipating the recovery of the macro economy.
Yesterday, Business News announced that the BCI value for September was 0.40. Since July, the BCI index has been red for three consecutive months, further showing that the manufacturing economy will continue to expand.
It is understood that the BCI (Bulk Commodity Index) of Bulk Commodity Supply and Demand of the Business Society, as a leading indicator of the manufacturing industry, was launched by the Business Society, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Business Exchange. Since the BCI was first released in January 2012, it has successfully predicted macroeconomic trends many times in a row. As an important part of Businessbao’s data strategy, BCI aims to help governments, institutions, and enterprises make better decisions. The index monitors the prices of 100 major basic raw materials, compares the prices at the beginning and end of the month, counts the number of monthly rising varieties and the number of falling varieties, and then divides the number of rising varieties by the number of falling varieties divided by the total to get a ratio. Reflects the prosperity of the manufacturing economy.
According to Business News, the theoretical basis of BCI (Bulk Commodity Index) is:
1. Supply and demand affect prices, and price changes reflect changes in supply and demand.
2. The relationship between supply and demand affects economic operations, so monitoring changes in supply and demand can reflect economic operations.
3. Commodities are the most upstream of the national economy, so monitoring the supply and demand relationship of commodities is particularly important.
微信扫一扫打赏
