According to the Hunan Provincial Department of Commerce’s monitoring data on the province’s production materials circulation market, in the 39th week of 2023 (September 18-24), the average coal sales price in Hunan Province was 1,092.92 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.4%, year-on-year down 10.5%. In terms of types, the average sales price of anthracite coal was 1,436.25 yuan/ton, up 1.9%, down 11.3% year-on-year; the average sales price of bituminous coal was 921.25 yuan/ton, up 0.9%, down 9.9% year-on-year.
Coal prices, which have continued to decline this year, reached an inflection point in early September and began to rebound. The province's coal market prices have increased slightly for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of 2.6%.
The main reasons for the rise in coal prices are: first, tight supply, which supports the continued strength of coal market prices. With the convening of the Asian Games, the approaching of the "Double Festival" and the frequent occurrence of safety accidents in coal mines, safety production inspections and safety supervision in major coal-producing areas continue to increase, and the release of coal production capacity is limited. It is expected that the short-term coal market supply will continue to be tight. The situation is difficult to change; second, the demand for thermal coal is stable, and the demand for non-thermal coal continues to improve. As the policy of stabilizing economic growth continues to take effect, the demand for replenishment in the non-thermal coal industry has improved, especially before the long holiday, the enthusiasm for cashing out long-term coal and market coal reserves has increased significantly, and the release of coal demand may exceed expectations; third, bulk commodities in the international market driven by rising prices. Recently, international oil prices, the top commodity, have risen sharply, exceeding US$90 per barrel, driving up coal prices.
Looking ahead to the market outlook, supply and demand in the coal market will be tightly balanced. Coal mine shutdowns for maintenance will increase before and after the "Double Festival", and supply is still expected to shrink. October is the traditional peak season for coal consumption in the non-thermal coal industry, and demand is expected to grow. It is expected that coal market prices in Hunan Province will continue to fluctuate on the strong side in the future.
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