The International Copper Study Group (ICSC) said after a meeting in Lisbon this week that the copper market will transition from a supply-demand balance in 2023 to oversupply next year. Production is expected to exceed usage by 467,000 tonnes in 2024, a significant upward revision from the 297,000 tonnes surplus forecast when the group last met in April. The group still believes there will be a shortage in the market this year, but its April forecast of 114,000 tonnes has been cut to just 27,000 tonnes, a miniscule figure compared with the global market of 26 million tonnes. The group's statisticians stressed that the forecasts are a snapshot in time, noting that "actual market balance results have recently deviated from ICSG market balance forecasts due to unforeseen developments". Two highlights of the latest data are weak demand in the West and strong production in China.
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