Looking at the bisphenol A market this year, the price is basically running below 10,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is no longer the same as the glorious period of more than 20,000 yuan in previous years. The author believes that the imbalance between supply and demand constrains the market, the industry is under pressure, and the price below the 10,000 yuan line may become the norm in the bisphenol A market in the future.
Specifically, one is that the production capacity of bisphenol A has increased significantly. Since the beginning of this year, the production capacity of bisphenol A has continued to be released, and the new annual production capacity of the two companies has reached a total of 440,000 tons. Affected by this, the total annual production capacity of bisphenol A in China reached 4.265 million tons, an increase of about 55% year-on-year, with an average monthly output of 288,000 tons, a record high. Looking at the market outlook, the expansion of bisphenol A production has not stopped, and it is expected that more than 1.2 million tons of bisphenol A new production capacity will be put into production this year. If they are all put into production on schedule, the annual production capacity of bisphenol A in China will expand to about 5.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 45%. At that time, the risk of prices falling below 9,000 yuan will continue to accumulate.
Second, corporate profits are not optimistic. Since the beginning of this year, the prosperity of the bisphenol A industry chain has been declining. From the perspective of upstream raw materials, the phenolic ketone market showed an "M" trend. In the first quarter, phenolic ketone companies were basically in a state of loss, and in the second quarter, most companies turned positive profits. However, in mid-May, the phenolic ketone market broke down, with acetone falling by more than 1,000 yuan and phenol falling by more than 600 yuan, which directly improved the profitability of bisphenol A companies. But even so, the bisphenol A industry is still hovering near the cost line. At present, bisphenol A equipment is undergoing constant maintenance, and the industry's capacity utilization rate is declining. After the maintenance season is over, it is expected that the overall supply of bisphenol A will increase. At that time, the pressure of competition may continue to increase, and the profit prospect is still not optimistic.
Third, demand support is weak. The outbreak of bisphenol A production capacity failed to match the growth of downstream demand in time, resulting in an increasingly obvious contradiction between supply and demand, which is an important factor causing the market to continue to operate at a low level. Polycarbonate (PC) accounts for more than 60% of the downstream consumption of bisphenol A. Since 2023, the PC industry has entered a cycle of digestion of existing production capacity. The superimposed terminal demand is not as good as the increase in supply. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market is obvious. The price of PC continues to fall, affecting The enthusiasm of enterprises to start work, the current utilization rate of PC production capacity is less than 70%, and it is difficult to improve in the short term. Another downstream epoxy resin production capacity continues to expand, but the demand in the terminal coatings industry is sluggish, and it is difficult for terminal consumption such as electronics and composite materials to improve substantially. The constraints on the demand side are still there, and the industry's capacity utilization rate is less than 50%. On the whole, the downstream PC and epoxy resin are weak to support the raw material bisphenol A.
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