The China Electricity Council (referred to as "China Electricity Council") released the "National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation Analysis and Forecast Report for the Third Quarter of 2023" on the 25th. It is estimated that the entire society's electricity consumption in 2023 will be 9.2 trillion kilowatt hours, year-on-year. The growth rate is about 6%, which is higher than the growth rate in 2022; it is expected that the national power supply and demand will be generally balanced during the peak winter period.
The China Electricity Council stated that since the beginning of this year, China's power supply has been safe and stable, power consumption has been stable and improving, power supply and demand have been generally balanced, and power transformation has continued to advance. In the first three quarters, the electricity consumption in the primary industry continued to grow rapidly, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry increased quarter by quarter, and the electricity consumption in the tertiary industry resumed rapid growth. Electricity consumption in all 31 provinces across the country is experiencing positive growth, with the western and eastern regions leading the charge.
At the same time, in the first three quarters, power investment grew rapidly, and non-fossil energy power generation investment accounted for nearly 90% of power investment. The newly installed power generation capacity exceeded 200 million kilowatts. Inter-regional and inter-provincial electricity transmission increased rapidly year-on-year.
In the first three quarters, the power system operated safely and stably, and the national power supply and demand situation was generally balanced during the peak summer season, creating the best results in ensuring power supply during the peak summer season in recent years.
The China Electricity Council predicts that, taking into account factors such as macroeconomics and the previous year’s base, and based on the prediction results of the electricity consumption of the whole society based on different forecasting methods, it is estimated that the electricity consumption of the whole society will increase by 6% year-on-year in 2023. %, which is higher than the growth rate in 2022; among them, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society in the fourth quarter is expected to exceed 7%, which is higher than the growth rate in the third quarter.
In addition, the scale of newly commissioned power generation installed capacity and the scale of non-fossil energy power generation installed capacity throughout the year will reach new highs. Driven by the rapid development of new energy power generation, it is expected that the country's newly installed power generation capacity will exceed 300 million kilowatts for the first time in history in 2023, of which new non-fossil energy power generation installed capacity will exceed 250 million kilowatts.
The China Electricity Council stated that the current thermal coal inventory is at a relatively good level for the same period in history, and the hydropower storage situation is also better than the same period last year. Based on the analysis of electricity demand and power supply capacity, it is expected that the national electricity supply and demand will be during the peak winter period. The overall situation is balanced, but the power supply and demand situation is tight in some areas.
微信扫一扫打赏
