In terms of PX, affected by the release of new domestic production capacity, the supply of PX increased a lot in the early stage. The first phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical, the first phase of Fuhai, Fuhai Chuang, Urumqi Petrochemical, CNOOC Huizhou and other facilities are all scheduled to be overhauled in the second quarter, and the supply of PX is expected to shrink.
In terms of PTA supply, Honggang 2# and Ineos are expected to maintain maintenance in March, and unplanned maintenance of equipment under low processing costs will increase. #Overhaul etc. Under the strong rigid demand and the expectation of equipment maintenance, PTA has the expectation of destocking.
In terms of ethylene glycol, 1 million tons of Shenghong Refining and Chemical will be commissioned for trial operation at the end of February and early March; Shaanxi Yulin Chemical’s 1.8 million tons will be lowered for some reason in the early stage, and the impact time is expected to be extended; the average operating rate of ethylene glycol in February is 59.63 %, down 3.85% from January.
In terms of domestic demand, the current polyester load has rebounded from the low point of 63.6% before the festival to around 86.1%. With the advent of the "Golden Three", the terminal demand has improved seasonally, and some factories have reflected that domestic demand orders have improved.
In terms of cost, boosted by the recovery of demand, the center of gravity of crude oil prices has moved up, and the support for downstream has increased.
In general, the center of gravity on the cost side has moved up, and the expectation of production cuts under low processing fees is heating up. TA305 is more likely to be held.
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