On July 10, the new energy track stocks rebounded collectively. Among them, the PVDF (polyvinylidene fluoride resin) concept sector led the increase. As of the close, it rose 4.41% overall, outperforming the market (up 0.22%). Sanmei shares rose by the limit, Lianchuang shares rose 17.34%, Yonghe shares and Juhua shares also rose 7.23% and 6.49% respectively.
Large single funds in the market have also begun to deploy PVDF concept stocks. On July 10, the PVDF concept sector showed a net buying trend of large orders as a whole, attracting a total of 211 million yuan. Among them, the net inflow of large single funds of Lianchuang shares ranked first, reaching 150.7367 million yuan, and the net inflow of large single funds of three concept stocks including Sanmei, Juhua, and Duofuoduo also exceeded 10 million yuan.
PVDF price in the second half of the yearis expected to rebound slightly
PVDF is a new type of fluorocarbon thermoplastic resin with good dielectric, piezoelectric, and thermoelectric properties. It has become the second largest product among fluoropolymers. PVDF is used in lithium batteries, coatings, Injection molding, water treatment film, solar backplane film and other fields.
As the sales of new energy vehicles continue to heat up, the demand in the downstream market of the PVDF industry is strong, providing support for the rebound of the sector. On July 10, data from the Passenger Federation showed that the new energy vehicle market retailed 665,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%; the cumulative retail sales since this year was 3.086 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.3%. In addition, according to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in the first five months of this year, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in my country was 119.2GWh, a year-on-year increase of 43.5%. The agency predicts that by 2025, the global demand for lithium battery grade PVDF will exceed 120,000 tons.
In this regard, Sui Dong, a wealth researcher interviewed by the "Securities Daily" reporter, said that PVDF plays an important role as a binder, dispersant and electrolyte in lithium batteries. With the strong support of policies, the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue to grow in the future, so the demand for PVDF is expected to continue to be strong, which will support the stabilization and rebound of PVDF prices and drive the strength of the PVDF concept sector.
Although the demand for PVDF continues to grow, the price of PVDF has been adjusted since the beginning of this year. According to Flush iFinD statistics, as of July 7, the price of PVDF (HSV900) used for lithium batteries was 160,000 yuan/ton, while the price at the beginning of the year was as high as 425,000 yuan/ton, a drop of 62.35% during the year.
"Under the current relatively slow demand recovery speed, the price of PVDF in the second half of the year will mainly fluctuate and go down. After the interval, some products have been replaced due to high costs, but the impact on the overall market is limited, and full recovery still needs to wait for relevant good news.” Chen Li, chief economist and director of the research institute of Chuancai Securities, told reporters.
PVDF enterprisesaccelerate the deployment of new production capacity
Talking about the expansion of production by PVDF companies, Chen Li said that, on the one hand, after the sharp rise in product prices in the past, the industry's production capacity was affected by explosive growth, and major production companies have accelerated the input of new production capacity. On the other hand, related production enterprises are rapidly transforming, and enterprises with lithium battery-grade PVDF production technology quickly convert existing photovoltaic and coating pellet devices into lithium batteries. After the supply in the field continues to increase, the growth rate of downstream demand and production expansion Failure to match, the supply and demand structure has reversed, from undersupply to oversupply, market price competition is fierce, and new production capacity is expected to continue to be released.
Ceng Sheng, a senior researcher at Kurosaki Capital, told reporters that although the price of PVDF has shown a downward trend this year, factors such as the increase in output of related companies in the lithium battery field, the reduction in raw material costs, and the increase in demand for PVDF have shown the profit margin and performance growth of PVDF potential. In addition, import prices in the PVDF market are still at a relatively high level, which also raises the possibility that PVDF prices will stabilize and rise in the second half of the year. With the release of new production capacity of domestic enterprises, the localization rate of PVDF in the lithium battery field is expected to increase significantly.
Chen Li believes that with the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry, the demand for PVDF will continue to grow. In the stage where the monthly output of domestic power batteries continues to increase, PVDF is an indispensable part of lithium batteries. From 2021 to April 2023, the PVDF market price has been rising all the way, and the price of PVDF for power batteries has been as high as 800,000 yuan/ton. . But in the short term, the entry of new companies drags down the market price, the release of a large number of new production capacity in the market, the intensification of market competition, and the price is unlikely to improve in the short term. In the long run, the PVDF market will usher in a rebound in the second half of the year when the new energy vehicle market is expected to improve.
As for the investment opportunities in the PVDF sector, Chen Li said that the current valuation of the PVDF sector is relatively low. Although there is a lot of pressure to destock in the short term, there is still a rebound expectation. It is recommended to focus on rapid technological improvement and a high market share. enterprises.
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