Since this year, the domestic aniline market has gone through a round of rapid growth and slow adjustment. In the first quarter, the price of aniline rose to 13,300 yuan in March (ton price, the same below), an increase of 27.5%; in the second quarter, the price of aniline fell back to 10,500 yuan at the end of June, a correction of 21.5% from the high level. In the first half of the year, the overall price increase of aniline reached 8.2%, and it was also one of the products with a relatively large amplitude in the increase.
Shao Huiwen, a senior market commentator: Volume and price coordination "advance three and retreat two"
In the first half of the year, the domestic aniline market went out of the fast-rising and slow-adjusting market, advancing for three months and retreating for two months. In the first quarter, the price of aniline quickly reached the peak with a unilateral upward trend, and hit a yearly high in March, followed by two phased corrections in April and May, and a small rebound in June Quotes.
Overall, the aniline market in the first half of the year showed two major characteristics. One is the rapid rise in stages. The fast-rising market in the aniline stage appeared in the first quarter. Against the background of obvious growth in demand, traders actively entered the market, and the transaction atmosphere was positive, and the price of aniline quickly rose to a high point. The second is staged slow tone. Due to the rapid rise in prices, the profits of aniline companies have increased significantly, and the efficiency has driven the operating rate of the aniline industry to increase significantly. The market supply is sufficient, and the demand side has shrunk, resulting in a phased correction of the aniline market in the second quarter. However, due to the differences in the domestic regional market, the replenishment in some areas is not timely, and there is a shortage in some markets, resulting in a periodic rebound. This is also one of the reasons why the aniline market did not show a unilateral downward trend at the end of the second quarter.
Wei Jianyang, general manager of Nanjing Kaiyan Chemical Co., Ltd.: maintain the box arrangement in the third quarter
In the first half of the year, the profitability of domestic aniline products was considered to be the best in the industry. In mid-March, not only the price hit a new high for the year, but the profit level also hit a new high for the year. In this context, domestic aniline enterprises have increased their efforts to start production, breaking the precedent that aniline plants have been difficult to produce at high load for many years. This is also the main reason for the fall of the aniline market in the second quarter. However, although aniline started to adjust its market in the middle and late March, the profitability of aniline companies continued to increase steadily after the middle and late April due to the fall in the price of raw material pure benzene and nitric acid and the reduction in costs.
From the perspective of demand, with the coming of summer, the downstream rubber additives industry has entered the off-season of consumption, and the pre-phase replenishment of polymeric MDI enterprises has also come to an end, and the overall demand for aniline has shown a slight shrinking trend. However, since the current raw material pure benzene market has stabilized after adjustment and the transaction is firm, it may form a certain cost support for the aniline market. Therefore, it is expected that the aniline market is unlikely to be significantly lowered in the short term, and the third quarter may become an important stage for market consolidation.
As an important intermediate product, aniline has a strong correlation with the market trend of bulk chemical raw materials, international situation, macroeconomic situation and other factors. Once there are large objective influencing factors, the possibility of continuous adjustment in the aniline market in the second half of the year cannot be ruled out.
Zhang Aiping, general manager of Henan Energy Carbon Research Institute Co., Ltd.: The bottom may continue in July
The data shows that in June, the prices of the downstream products of aniline polymerized MDI, accelerators, and anti-aging agents were 16,000 yuan, 19,500 yuan, and 22,600 yuan, respectively. Among them, the price of polymeric MDI rose by 7.3% month-on-month, while accelerators and anti-aging agents fell by 5.7% and 14% month-on-month respectively.
According to the market analysis, the rise of polymeric MDI has formed a support for the aniline market, which was in decline and adjustment in May. In addition, domestic aniline plants have reduced their load and production, resulting in a rebound in the aniline market in late May, and the price once rose to around 11,000 yuan. , and sideways for nearly a month. However, with the decline of other downstream product markets, the demand shrank, which caused the aniline market to weaken and adjust again in late June, and returned to the level at the beginning of the year in early July, and adjusted to below the price line of 9,450 yuan at the beginning of the year in some areas.
Based on the current market price, the profit level of aniline enterprises is still relatively high, and the profit per ton is more than 2,000 yuan. Production enterprises are active in operation, and the previously overhauled aniline units will gradually resume. It is expected that the comprehensive operating rate of the aniline industry is expected to increase by more than 3%.
In this context, the aniline market may continue to bottom out in July. (Liu Yongming)
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