Editor's Note In the first half of this year, under the influence of demand shrinkage and other factors, the domestic chemical product market showed a trend of rising less and falling more. Among the 124 major chemical products monitored by Jinlianchuang, the rising products accounted for 21.8%, and the falling products accounted for 77.4%. Among these chemical products, which products have performed well in the market? Which product markets are sluggish? What about the market trend of these products in the second half of the year?
In the first half of the year, although the market performance of methyl methacrylate (MMA) was not as dazzling as in previous years, the price reached 12,200 yuan (ton price, the same below) on June 30, an increase of 22% compared with the beginning of the year, ranking Ranked at the forefront of the list of chemical products in the first half of the year.
Jinlianchuang analyst Ge Linlin: The market trend is low before high and then high
In the first quarter, the MMA market was tepid and fluctuated in a narrow range above the 10,000 yuan mark. The fluctuation range was 300 to 4,400 yuan. %.
In the second quarter, the MMA market went out of an "N" shape. The MMA market ushered in a long-lost rise in April and reached a half-year high in mid-May. The price in the secondary market in East China was around 12,800 yuan. After that, the market went up and fell back, and the price rose again in a wide range in late June. As of the end of June, the price in the secondary market in East China rose to around 12,500 yuan, second only to the high point in mid-May. In the second quarter, the average market price of MMA was around 11,600 yuan.
One of the important factors causing such a trend in the MMA market this year is the change on the supply side. In the first quarter, the 50,000-ton/year MMA plant of Jilin Petrochemical (Jieyang) and the 70,000-ton/year MMA plant of CNOOC Fudao Hainan (Shanghai) South China Branch successfully produced qualified products. The substantial increase in production capacity is an important factor for the MMA market to hover at a low level in the first quarter.
In the second quarter, although Liaoning Kingfa's 100,000-ton/year MMA plant was commissioned for trial operation, some enterprises stopped to reduce their burdens, resulting in a temporary supply tightening, and the capacity utilization rate was less than 50%, which helped the MMA market to climb steadily. Taking June as an example, in addition to the shutdown of Zibo Qixiang Tengda and Qixiang Huali New Materials and other devices in the early stage, a total of 5 MMA new maintenance devices were added in June, involving a production capacity of 605,000 tons per year. The average operating rate of domestic manufacturers is around 46%, down 2 percentage points from May.
In addition, the sharp increase in exports in April and May also assisted the MMA market to rise. The data shows that my country's MMA export volume in the past two months totaled 31,100 tons, exceeding the total export volume in the previous three months.
Wang Chunming, general manager of Shandong Ruiyang Chemical Trading Co., Ltd.: the contradiction between supply and demand needs to be straightened out
In recent years, domestic MMA production capacity has continued to be released, reaching 2.15 million tons in 2023, an increase of 38.26% over 2021. Entering 2023, MMA production capacity will continue to be released.
The substantial increase in production capacity will directly affect the market price. Compared with the previous price of more than 20,000 yuan, it is inevitable that the price of MMA will shrink sharply. Last year, the MMA market price was at a historically low level, and the average price in the secondary market in East China was 11,800 yuan. In the first half of this year, the average price was less than 11,000 yuan, almost the same as in 2020, which was most affected by the epidemic.
There will be MMA production capacity released within the year, but delays in production cannot be ruled out. At present, the operating rate of the MMA industry is less than 50%. If companies do not take measures such as production reduction, the MMA market will still face obstacles in the second half of the year.
From the perspective of upstream acetone, in 2023, the production capacity of Ruiheng and Shenghong will continue to be released. In the second half of the year, Hengli Petrochemical, Qingdao Haiwan, Huizhou Zhongxin and Longjiang Chemical will put into production multiple sets of phenolic ketone plants. It is difficult to cope with the cost The MMA market has formed an effective pull.
Looking at the downstream polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA), there were almost no bright spots in the market in the first half of the year. Due to the unabated operating pressure, the production capacity of raw materials lagged behind. Coupled with the depreciation of the renminbi and the increase in the supply of imported goods, the downstream market is hardly optimistic about the pull of MMA.
In the third quarter, the continuous high temperature coincided with the low season of industry consumption, and the status quo of weak demand may continue throughout. "Golden September and Silver October" may perform well, but in the macro environment with increasing downward pressure on the economy, the quality has long been insufficient. It is expected that in the second half of the year, MMA prices may have a staged recovery opportunity, and the low operating rate may be accompanied by the whole year.
Longzhong Information analyst Wu Yingying: Profitability has improved
In the ACH MMA production process, the raw material acetone has the greatest influence on the MMA market trend. In the first half of the year, the acetone market rose first and then fell. As of the end of June, the closing price of the acetone market in East China was 5,150 yuan, down 250 yuan from the end of last year, and the cost pressure of MMA has eased.
In the first quarter, the operating rate of the acetone industry was relatively high, reaching an average of 85.42%, but the demand can still support the market to remain firm. In the second quarter, the operating rate of the acetone industry continued to decline, reaching less than 70% by the end of June. However, under the constraints of weak demand, merchants have gradually changed from taking profits at the beginning to being forced to sell goods at a profit, and the downstream is mostly waiting for low-priced purchases. In addition, the pure benzene and propylene raw material markets continued to fall, cost support collapsed, and prices continued to fall.
Contrary to the trend of raw materials, the profit margin of ACH method MMA changes in an "N" shape. In the first quarter, most MMA companies operated below the cost line; in the second quarter, the profit margin expanded, and the increases in April, May and June were 393 yuan, 1126 yuan and 872 yuan respectively. (Zhao Shuling)
微信扫一扫打赏
