In the first half of the year, the domestic chemical market as a whole fell back and adjusted, showing less rise and more fall. On the whole, intermediate products bucked the trend and remained strong, while traditional chemicals and fertilizers generally fell and the decline was relatively large, while fine chemicals and basic raw materials were relatively resilient.
The cost of upstream raw materials drives the intermediate product market to remain firm at a high level. According to Jinlianchuang statistics, the top five chemical products in the first half of the year were methyl methacrylate (MMA), 1,4-butanediol (BDO), toluene, aniline, methyl tert-butyl Ether (MTBE) increased by 22%, 15.3%, 8.3%, 8.3%, and 7.6% respectively. Although the closing prices in the first half of the year have been adjusted to varying degrees, the overall market is firm. These products are all chemical intermediate products, involving coatings, dyes, resins, plastics, additives, pharmaceuticals, textiles, pesticides, gasoline additives and other industries. Based on the current stable market demand, these products belong to the rigid demand sequence and are at a high level most of the time. Strong state.
Traditional chemical products and fertilizer-related products generally fell and the decline was relatively large. In the first half of the year, most traditional chemical products and fertilizer raw materials showed a trend of falling from high levels, and the decline was relatively large. Chemical and fertilizer enterprises in various places were under greater pressure of losses. According to the statistics of Jinlianchuang, in the first half of the year, the top five products with the largest declines were liquid chlorine, synthetic ammonia liquid, sulfur, sulfuric acid, and coal. Except for coal, which is a traditional energy product, the others are traditional chemical products and fertilizer raw materials. It is also a variety with a large market share. Such as chlor-alkali liquid chlorine, caustic soda, and hydrochloric acid fell by 120%, 31.6%, and 20% respectively. Fertilizer-related raw materials such as synthetic ammonia liquid, sulfur, sulfuric acid, potassium chloride (64%), monoammonium phosphate (55%), potassium sulfate (50%), compound fertilizer (L45%) and other products, fell by 43.4% and 42% respectively , 40%, 34.3%, 29%, 28.4%, 23.8%. As an important raw material for traditional chemical industry, coal chemical industry and fertilizer, the price of coal also dropped by about 40%. It can be seen from the market of these products that, except for the excessive increase of traditional chemical products in the early stage and the rational decline, the weakening of the overall market demand is the main reason for the general decline.
Fine chemicals and basic raw materials are relatively resilient. In the first half of the year, another feature of the chemical product market is that fine chemicals are resistant to falling, especially those products close to the consumer end, as well as basic raw material products that are closely related to end consumer goods. Steady trend. For example, butadiene rubber, fiber grade polyethylene terephthalate (PET), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), polyester filament and other products increased by 3%, 2.3%, 1.4%, and 1% respectively. For example, acetic acid, acetone, nitrile rubber, and propylene oxide fell by 2.5%, 1.8%, 1.3%, and 0.3%, respectively. Although these products are affected by the general environment of the chemical market, but because they are closer to the consumer side, the overall resilience is relatively strong. This also shows that demand-side consumption is expected to gradually stabilize.
Comprehensive analysis shows that in the first half of the year, the chemical product market has not only returned to rationality, but also has fallen due to excessive growth. Most of them are due to normal price corrections due to weakening demand, and the overall market is still within the scope of market regulation.
Looking forward to the market outlook, the large decline of chemical fertilizers in the first half of the year is expected to gradually stop and recover. Basic raw material products may bottom out and stabilize. There is little room for traditional chemical products to adjust downward again. It is expected that the third quarter will be the overall chemical market During the important finishing period of successive recovery, the market of fine chemical products is still expected. (According to the wind)
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