Game between cost and supply and demand, PTA price fluctuates within a narrow range at a high level, strong cost, PTA processing fee continues to fall, industry processing fee loss, PTA enterprises are expected to revive maintenance, has already risen to the high point of the year, can the PTA market continue to rise?
1. During the large production cycle, the correlation between PTA profit and start-up load decreases
At the end of July 2023, 8.75 million tons of new PTA production capacity will be added, including Weilian, Hengli 6#, Jiatong Energy, and Hengli 7#. By July 2023, the PTA production capacity will be 79 million tons. There are still many devices planned to be put into production in the second half of the year and next year, and PTA is still in the period of large-scale production. In recent years, with the development of the industry, PTA companies have extended more applications to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, which has also caused PTA companies to reduce their own processing fees during the large production cycle, and pay more attention to products with higher profitability in the industrial chain. For example, this year, PX has concentrated For the profits of the polyester industry chain, for PTA factories, especially those equipped with PX, they are more concerned about whether the processing profits of PX can be maintained.
Generally speaking, if the processing fee is low, the load will decrease, and if the processing fee is high, the load will increase, but there is a time difference between the two. The two centralized inspections of PTA this year were concentrated in March and May respectively, and the processing fee was low and seasonal inspections were superimposed. However, with the end of the annual maintenance of some devices, the impact of processing fees on the production willingness of enterprises is reduced, and some devices that have not yet been inspected annually are equipped with related upstream and downstream products. The factory profit is not only calculated as the profit of a single product, but also for other products that have profits and orders are acceptable. Under such circumstances, the willingness to overhaul PTA factories has dropped significantly. From the perspective of production capacity chain support, PTA enterprises have a production capacity of 65.49 million tons of upstream or downstream products, accounting for 82% of the production capacity. From the perspective of industrial chain benefits, the current industrial profits are concentrated on the PX side, and the price difference between PX and naphtha is basically maintained at around US$450/ton. Choose to stop due to loss of fees. For PTA-polyester enterprises, if they stop PTA and choose to purchase PTA outside, there will be upward pressure on procurement costs, so this will cause a decrease in the correlation between PTA start-up load and processing costs.
2. On the eve of the peak season, it will take time for the decline in demand to materialize
As for the traditional low and peak seasons for terminals, generally speaking, in the second half of the year, more attention will be paid to the traditional peak season demand of "Golden September and Silver October". At the beginning of August, autumn and winter orders started slowly, large orders have not been fully implemented, and the market is still waiting for the recovery of demand. The demand for polyester mainly focuses on two points. One is that India's BIS certification has been postponed until October 5. The polyester filament products currently involved in BIS certification include FDY/IDY/POY. In recent years, the proportion of polyester filament exported to India has increased significantly, from 1.3% in 2018 to 10.2% in 2023. The main reason is that the textile and garment industry is gradually shifting to Southeast Asian countries, and the demand for polyester yarn at the raw material end is increasing. From January to May this year, POY exported to India accounted for 33%, and FDY accounted for 34%. POY and FDY will increase significantly year-on-year in 2023. Part of the reason for the increase in export to India is BIS certification. Some manufacturers chose to export in advance. In the later period, we still need to pay attention to the issue of BIS certification. The second is the problem of polyester production restriction under the influence of the Asian Games. Pay attention to the change of polyester start-up load from the beginning of September to the end of October, but it still takes time to realize it.
Third, the PX at the cost side still maintains a relatively strong pattern, and pay attention to the return node of domestic production
In the first half of the year, the U.S.-Asia trade led to a shortage of PX raw materials due to oil demand adjustments, resulting in a low PX load in Asia. Although domestic production was realized in the first half of the year, there were still periods of tight supply and demand, especially in the second quarter. . PX has no production plan in the second half of the year, while downstream PTA is still expected to start production, and there may still be a phased mismatch in production capacity. On this basis, PX may still maintain a relatively strong pattern.
In the first half of the year, except for the sharp reduction in imports in April due to the impact of the U.S.-Asia trade, the monthly imports in the rest of the month remained in the range of 700,000 to 900,000 tons, focusing on the return of domestic production in the second half of the year. PX load determines the change of domestic production in the second half of the year. July-August is the peak season for gasoline. It is estimated that the probability of PX load increase is not high. After September, PX load may pick up. Pay attention to the PX-naphtha price difference and the dynamics of PX installations.
Four. Summary
In the second half of 2023, PTA is still in the production cycle, but the accumulation rate in the second half of the year is not high, and the centralized maintenance of large factories may bring about a phased destocking market. The short-term PTA fundamental trend drive is not obvious for the time being. It is expected to fluctuate in a range, focusing on the low-level rebound brought by crude oil and macro sentiment, and paying attention to unplanned maintenance. At present, we still need to wait for the accumulation of contradictions, such as terminal negative feedback and continuous accumulation of PTA, but it is expected to take time.
微信扫一扫打赏
