Since May, the domestic methanol market has ushered in a round of accelerated bottoming. As of June 15, the domestic mainstream transaction price of methanol fell to 1,900-2,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the low-end price even fell below 1,800 yuan, a month-on-month drop of about 13%, a new low for the year, forming a common situation for production enterprises. The situation of loss caused the industry to worry about the market outlook.
"In mid-June, the decline in the domestic methanol market slowed down, and the transaction volume also shrank. Except for the low prices of some enterprises in Inner Mongolia, the price difference between other regions has narrowed significantly, the losses of enterprises have continued to expand, and their reluctance to sell has increased. Start to sell at a high price. At present, the market trading atmosphere has gradually improved, the bottom market has shown a narrowing trend, and periodic bottom signals have appeared, and the market is expected to stabilize in the future." Shao Huiwen, a senior market commentator, analyzed this way.
Supply more and demand less, the market continues to fall
Statistics from SunSirs show that the domestic methanol market has continued to decline since May. As of June 15, the mainstream transaction price has dropped to around 1,900 yuan, and the transaction prices of major ports such as Nantong, Changzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Ningbo are between 2,000 and 2,100 yuan. The price in Henan is 1,800-1,900 yuan, and in some areas of Inner Mongolia, it has dropped to around 1,600 yuan. Almost all methanol production enterprises in various places are losing money.
"The continuous bottoming trend of the methanol market is not only affected by the decline in the international market, but also has a lot to do with the insufficient operating rate of methanol downstream devices. In addition, some by-product methanol without downstream supporting products has also accelerated into the market. Various factors have led to domestic methanol production. The price continued to fall.” Xia Yanle, deputy director of the operation department of Henan Zhonghong Group Coal Chemical Co., Ltd. analyzed.
However, since mid-June, the decline in the methanol market has slowed down significantly. On June 15, the bidding prices of enterprises in Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi and other places have stopped falling and rebounded. As of June 20, the price of methanol has rebounded significantly. From a technical point of view, the methanol market has gone through the recent continuous decline, and manufacturers are more reluctant to sell when they are losing money, and they have plans to increase the start-up load of downstream supporting equipment. The supply of low-priced goods has begun to decrease, and the market has narrowed and is expected to stabilize.
Successive loss-making companies are reluctant to sell
Central Plains Futures weekly report information shows that as of June 14, the total inventory of methanol ports was 742,800 tons, a decrease of 7,200 tons, a weekly decline of 0.96%. The inventory of some representative enterprises in the mainland was 360,400 tons, a decrease of 12,900 tons, a weekly decline of 3.46%. "These data show that the overall domestic inventory is showing a steady downward trend. On the one hand, the consumption of inventory is to meet the new demand in the downstream market, and on the other hand, due to the continuous loss of products, the company's reluctance to sell has increased, which has reduced the sales of pure methanol to foreign countries. Turn to increase the digestion capacity of self-supporting equipment, such as the comprehensive operating rate of coal-to-olefins equipment has increased to more than 85%, and some enterprises have reached about 90%." Shao Huiwen said.
According to statistics, from June 9 to 15, the comprehensive operating rate of methanol downstream was 72.18%, a month-on-month increase of 0.65%; the operating rate of methanol plants was 76.15%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.74%. "Although the methanol market is still weak, and some high-end prices are still making up for the decline, this increase and decrease indicate that the market decline has slowed down significantly, and the market has begun to further narrow. There is not much room for another sharp decline, and the market has stabilized It can be expected.” Said the sales director of a large coal chemical company in Inner Mongolia.
Good support for stable trading
According to the information of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, methanol futures rebounded after falling from June 9 to 15, fluctuating between 1950 and 2050 yuan. Although the boost from the positive fundamentals is limited, the positive macro support supports the overall commodity rebound. According to the port market, as of June 14, CFR China Methanol closed at US$235/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.08%, and the converted RMB price was 2077.51 yuan.
Zhang Aiping, head of Henan Energy Carbon Research Institute Co., Ltd., said that both the futures market and the source of imported goods have certain support for the domestic methanol market. In the context of the current general deficit, coal-to-olefins, coal-to-fertilizer, coke oven gas-to-methanol and other enterprises are in the process of coping with the continuous decline in the methanol market, all of which are discussing the appropriate ratio of self-use and pure sales to maximize product profits. The overall trading atmosphere in the market has stabilized, and a new balance point between supply and demand is expected to be formed in the near future.
Industry insiders analyzed that the downward momentum of the methanol market is relatively fully released at present, but in the context of off-season demand, it is unlikely that the market will pick up in the short term. In the process of enterprises adjusting the proportion of self-use and export sales, the market is expected to enter a narrow range consolidation stage. It is recommended to actively pay attention to changes in the international market, the increase in downstream start-up load, and the recent macroeconomic orientation.
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