The State Council Information Office held a press conference on business work and operations in the first half of 2023 on the 19th. Li Xingqian, director of the Department of Foreign Trade, said at the meeting that he remains optimistic about the prospects for foreign trade in the second half of the year.
At the meeting, a reporter asked a question. Affected by factors such as shrinking external demand, my country's foreign trade imports and exports were under pressure in the first half of the year. How does the Ministry of Commerce evaluate the foreign trade imports and exports in the first half of the year? In addition, we have noticed that the growth rate of import and export in May and June has dropped significantly. What are the reasons?
In this regard, Li Xingqian said that regarding the import and export performance in the first half of the year. Since the beginning of this year, the external challenges facing foreign trade have indeed increased significantly. The State Council has issued policies and measures in a timely manner to fully support foreign trade companies in exploring markets. On the whole, in the face of the severe and complex external environment, foreign trade withstood the pressure in the first half of the year and showed strong resilience. There are three outstanding performances:
First, the overall stability of the trade scale has been achieved, and the trade volume has maintained growth. From January to June, my country's import and export of goods exceeded 20 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, compared with the same period before the epidemic, that is, the first half of 2019, an increase of 36.7%. China continues to maintain its status as the largest country in trade in goods. The market share increased steadily. According to the latest data from the WTO, in the first quarter, global exports fell by 1.6% year-on-year, and China's export market share in the international market was 14%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared with the first quarter of last year. In the second quarter, China's export share in the international market still maintained a steady and rising trend. Against the background of sluggish demand in the global market as a whole, the exports of surrounding countries and regions generally declined by double digits. China's export market is diversified and its products are abundant, effectively hedging the impact of weak external demand and the cyclical decline of some products. The current performance of China's foreign trade is in line with expectations.
Second, the continuous improvement of trade quality has been achieved. From January to June this year, the share of emerging markets in imports and exports increased by 1.8 percentage points compared with the same period last year, reaching 63.5%. China's imports and exports to FTA partners increased by 2.4%, and those to countries along the "Belt and Road" increased by 9.8%, both of which were higher than the overall export growth rate. Export products are being upgraded in quality, and high-quality, high-tech, high value-added products are growing strongly. In the first half of the year, electric passenger vehicles, solar cells and lithium batteries together boosted the overall export growth rate by 1.8 percentage points. Foreign trade formats are also developing innovatively. The Ministry of Commerce replicated and promoted 30 excellent practice cases of new foreign trade formats across the country. In the first half of the year, cross-border e-commerce exports increased by 19.9%, maintaining a relatively rapid development momentum.
Third, foreign trade effectively serves the overall situation of economic development. Foreign trade continues to promote the recovery of the national economy. Foreign trade directly and indirectly created 190 million jobs. Last year, the Ministry of Commerce canceled the filing and registration of foreign trade operators, which further stimulated the enthusiasm of market players. From January to June, there were 35,000 new foreign trade companies with import and export performance year-on-year. In terms of guaranteeing the supply of the domestic market, the Ministry of Commerce actively expanded the import of grain, energy resource products and high-quality consumer goods to meet the needs of domestic production and living. In terms of expanding opening up, the RCEP will be fully effective for the 15 signatory countries, and the internal and external circulation will be smoother.
Li Xingqian said that regarding the decline in the growth rate of my country's imports and exports in May and June, it should be said that this is a direct reflection of the sluggish recovery of the world economy in the trade field. Specifically, there are four main reasons for the decline in the growth rate of imports and exports in the past two months: First, the overall external demand continued to be weak. Major developed countries still adopted austerity policies to deal with high inflation, and some emerging markets experienced large fluctuations in exchange rates and insufficient foreign exchange reserves, all of which significantly suppressed import demand. Second, the electronic information industry is in a cyclical downturn. Consumer electronics products are our country's advantageous export products, but there is an "Olympic cycle" in this field, and the current cycle of about four years is still at a low point. Affected by this, the export growth rate of computers, integrated circuits, and mobile phones, which account for more than 30% of China's exports, has declined by double digits. Third, the import and export base increased significantly in the same period last year. From May to June last year, the average monthly import and export volume was 3.57 trillion yuan, which was 430 billion yuan higher than the monthly average of 3.14 trillion yuan in the previous four months. Fourth, import and export prices are falling. Now international bulk commodity prices have been weakening. In May, my country's import prices fell by 4.5%, and in June a further drop of 8.5%. Export prices have also turned from positive to negative year-on-year since May.
Li Xingqian emphasized that despite this, we must also see that foreign trade operations are accumulating new vitality. Although the year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports in May and June decreased, they maintained a month-on-month growth. The national port foreign trade cargo and container throughput monitored by the transportation department are also increasing, and the actual cargo in and out is still relatively active. Therefore, the Ministry of Commerce remains optimistic about the prospect of foreign trade in the second half of the year.
微信扫一扫打赏
