SunSirs commodity price forecast (July 18 2023)

The latest price of SC crude oil (July 17): 581.3 yuan/barrel, the market outlook is bullish

Analysis points: Crude oil futures fell significantly last Friday. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 75.42 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 1.47 US dollars or 1.9%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 79.87 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 1.49 US dollars or 1.8%. On Monday, the domestic SC crude oil market followed suit, and the main contract settled at 581.3 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.4%. On the macro level, the strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed oil prices. In addition, the profit-taking of the bulls has made the market bearish. But expectations of tighter supplies limited losses in oil prices. Forecast: On the macro level, the expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike is still negative for demand, and the expectation of tight supply remains unchanged. The oil market is expected to remain volatile and relatively strong.

The latest price of sulfur (July 17): 830.00 yuan / ton, the market outlook is bullish

Analysis points: The price on July 17 increased by 7.79% compared with the previous working day. The domestic sulfur market is on the strong upward trend, and the price has risen sharply. Refinery stocks remained rational and shipments were active. Last week, monoammonium phosphate started to increase, and the price rose. The downstream demand for sulfur purchases increased. On the supply side, the operation of refineries in Shandong is average, the supply of goods in the market is stable, and the attitude of the industry is positive. The upward trend in the downstream market has a positive impact on sulfur.

Forecast of the market outlook: It is expected that the sulfur market will run relatively strong in the market outlook, and pay more attention to the downstream follow-up situation.

The latest price of hydrogen peroxide (July 17): 1200 yuan / ton, the market outlook is bullish

Analysis points: In mid-July, the price of hydrogen peroxide ushered in a sharp rise, with a single-day increase of 25%, an increase of 53.19% from the beginning of July. The main reason is that the shutdown of major factories has not started, the supply of hydrogen peroxide is tight in the market, the demand for terminal purchases increases, and the market transactions are relatively fast. Manufacturers have raised the ex-factory price of hydrogen peroxide. The mainstream quotation is 1,200 yuan/ton, and the price has increased by 200-250 yuan/ton.

Forecast of the market outlook: It is difficult to restore the supply of hydrogen peroxide in the short term, and it is expected that the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to run at a high level in the future.

The latest price of liquid epoxy resin (July 17): 13666 yuan / ton, the market outlook is bullish

Analysis points: The second round of epoxy resin has pushed up sharply, with an increase of 4.62%, mainly supported by the cost side. The dual raw materials bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin have risen significantly since July, and are still operating at a high level. Epoxy resin is greatly affected by the cost side, and factories are more willing to stand up for prices. Listed prices have been raised one after another, and traders are following the offers.

Forecast of the future market: the current dual raw materials are operating at a strong and high level, and the resin cost support is strong, but the demand is insufficient, and the inertia of epoxy resin is strong in the short term.

The latest price of methanol (July 17): 2220 yuan / ton, the market outlook will fluctuate

Analysis points: International crude oil has soared and fell back, the macro-side is negative, and the domestic methanol market has given up its previous gains. The operating rate of downstream equipment is low, the market is expected to be light, the quotations of manufacturers are often lowered, and traders mainly sell at low prices.

Forecast of the market outlook: In the short term, the domestic methanol market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

The latest price of gasoline (July 17): 8445 yuan / ton in the market outlook

Analysis points: At the end of June, the State Administration of Taxation issued Announcement No. 11 of 2023, unifying the policy of imposing consumption tax on various raw materials including mixed aromatics. The gasoline market rose sharply in early July, and the policy news continued to be digested in the later period , Gasoline prices returned to rationality and gradually fell back. In addition, the recent domestic gasoline market has come to an end as traders cover their positions, the market buying and selling atmosphere tends to be flat, and the gasoline market has declined.

Forecast of the market outlook: In terms of cost, the crude oil market is in a relatively strong shock. In addition, on the demand side, there are more residents traveling, and the use of automobile air conditioners increases gasoline consumption.