"Both the import and export volume of soda ash in March exceeded expectations, which also shows that the positive trend of exports is still continuing." Recently, a front-line person in the soda ash market said.
The latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China shows that in the first quarter of 2023, the export of soda ash was 450,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 45.10%; the import of soda ash was 47,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 37%. Among them, the export of soda ash in March was 163,000 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons year-on-year; the import of soda ash was 45,600 tons, an increase of 38,500 tons year-on-year.
"The market expected a decline in soda ash exports and an increase in imports. However, judging from the actual data, its performance has exceeded market expectations." Zhou Xiaoyan, senior analyst at SDIC Anxin Futures, said.
Everbright Futures analyst Zhang Linglu analyzed that the large increase in soda ash imports in March was mainly due to the tight balance between domestic supply and demand. The downstream needs to supplement the consumption through imports. Most of the enterprises are concentrated in float glass factories and photovoltaic glass factories. This part of the import increase will directly enter the downstream glass factory after arriving in Hong Kong, and the impact on the market is relatively limited, but to a certain extent, it may cause downstream manufacturers to reduce the amount of soda ash purchased from domestic manufacturers.
"The export volume in March further increased to 163,000 tons on the basis of last year's high base, exceeding market expectations, showing that the industry's supply and demand are booming, and the export trend is still continuing." Senior Analyst of Founder Mid-term Futures Wei Chaoming believes that in 2023, the international energy price will be high, and the export volume of soda ash will increase significantly. This year's export volume can further rise on the basis of last year's high base, which shows that the international market has strong resilience to the demand for soda ash, and the expectation of a significant weakening of international demand remains to be seen. fix.
In this regard, Li Jiahao, an analyst at Nanhua Futures, said that compared with last year, the export of soda ash this year is expected to weaken. The main reason is that the return of supply under the background of the decline of foreign energy sources, the contraction of the price difference between domestic and foreign alkalis, and the decrease of sea freight have caused the export to weaken month-on-month.
In the short term, the unexpected import and export data of soda ash is circumstantial evidence of the healthy operation of the domestic soda ash market. The profits of soda companies are still relatively high, and Yuanxing Energy's new production capacity is approaching, and the manufacturers have no maintenance plans to ensure profits, and the market supply remains high. The demand for light alkali is unlikely to improve in the short term, and the market for float glass downstream of heavy alkali is better, which may lead to an increase in production capacity. The expected change in the supply and demand pattern in the later period has led to a major change in the mentality of the supply and demand side. It is expected that soda ash manufacturers will still focus on active shipments in the short term, and the spot price will maintain a downward trend. On the whole, the short-term soda ash market is expected to fluctuate in the game of two factors: the steady increase in demand for heavy ash and the continuous decline in spot prices. (Zhang Qinye)
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