At the beginning of May, affected by the unexpected incident, the hydrogen peroxide market went up. As of May 8, the domestic average price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide reached 988 yuan (ton price, the same below), a new high for the year, an increase of 27.48% from the last working day before "May 1". However, due to the sluggish performance on the demand side, the price of hydrogen peroxide peaked and then fell back. As of May 22, the domestic benchmark price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide was 966.67 yuan.
Continued weak demand
Demand restriction is the fundamental reason why the price of hydrogen peroxide has dropped after speculation. In the first ten days of May, the main downstream markets such as caprolactam and papermaking were not good, the overall operating rate of the industry was not high, other downstream demand continued to be weak, and there was strong resistance to the high price of raw material hydrogen peroxide.
"With the return of 'May 1st', the operating rate of the caprolactam industry has dropped to a new low for the year, with the operating level fluctuating at 61% to 65%, a drop of 7 to 8 percentage points compared with that before the holiday. At the same time, the price of caprolactam continued to decline in the first ten days of May. As of On May 15, the reference price of liquid caprolactam in East China was 12,400 to 12,500 yuan, a drop of 300 yuan from the first working day after the holiday." said Tang Shasha, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information.
"Paper making and other downstream fields continue to be weak. On May 15, the average price of the domestic 250-400g white cardboard market was 4,598 yuan, which was the same as the previous working day. The market is still mainly wait-and-see. It is understood that, Fujian test machine paper will start selling. It is expected that with the launch of new paper, the game in the white cardboard market will intensify, and the price may fluctuate." Xue Dongmei, an analyst at Longzhong Information, said.
In early May, Fujian Yongrong Technology Co., Ltd., Fujian Liansheng Paper Co., Ltd. and other downstream new production capacity were put on the market. However, because most of the new production capacity is for self-use or has not yet been fully released in the initial stage of production, the paper industry has limited demand for hydrogen peroxide. .
There are no bright spots in the downstream new energy fields of hydrogen peroxide such as propylene oxide, anhydrous iron phosphate and lithium carbonate. On May 15, the mainstream negotiation in the Shandong market of propylene oxide was 9,550 to 9,700 yuan, and the price range moved down; the price of anhydrous iron phosphate on the market was weak and consolidated, and the mainstream price was 13,000 yuan; the price of lithium carbonate has been temporarily stable recently, and the current market The overall mentality is still dominated by wait and see.
Ample supply overall
Entering May, the operating rate of hydrogen peroxide enterprises fluctuated at the bottom after a deep drop. Although Shandong currently has nearly 2 million tons/year of hydrogen peroxide production capacity is still under maintenance, the supply of goods in Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and other places is rapidly replenished, and the overall market supply remains adequate at present.
"As of mid-May, the operating rate of hydrogen peroxide enterprises across the country was 65.01%, a decrease of 7.68 percentage points from April 30. Although the operating rate of the industry remains low, some supporting devices (such as propylene oxide enterprises) temporarily sell hydrogen peroxide outside , The overall market supply is still abundant, and the supply side remains loose." Tang Shasha said.
"In the middle and late May, the maintenance of some hydrogen peroxide devices is expected to be completed. On May 14, the 260,000-ton/year hydrogen peroxide device of Hunan (Hengyang) Kingboard Industrial Co., Ltd. started operation; the 150,000-ton hydrogen peroxide device of Sichuan Jiangyou Wanli Chemical Co., Ltd. The hydrogen peroxide plant per year and the 170,000 tons per year hydrogen peroxide plant of Shandong Jinmei Mingshui Chemical Group Co., Ltd. are expected to start operation in the near future, and the market supply is expected to increase." Xue Dongmei said.
"In the middle and late May, in addition to the above-mentioned devices, the hydrogen peroxide devices of Tianjin Bohua Chemical Development Co., Ltd., Shandong Binhua Dongrui Chemical Co., Ltd. and other maintenance companies restarted or lifted the load, involving a production capacity of 1.04 million tons per year Dezhou Shihua Chemical Co., Ltd., which is undergoing planned maintenance, involves about 150,000 tons of hydrogen peroxide production capacity per year. Without considering the shutdown of other unplanned devices, it is expected that the supply of hydrogen peroxide will increase significantly in late May." Tang Shasha said.
The market is thin
Because the main downstream market of hydrogen peroxide is not good, it puts pressure on the support of raw material hydrogen peroxide; at the same time, because the short-term supply of hydrogen peroxide is still expected to increase, the market as a whole maintains a rational attitude, and the market price is stable and weakens after speculation.
"On May 15th, the price of hydrogen peroxide in many places in China was lowered. The national average price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide was 949 yuan, a decrease of 3% from the 12th. Among them, the Shandong market had the largest decline. The daily price of 1,030 yuan fell by 7.89%. The price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in the southwest region stabilized at 950 yuan." Xue Dongmei said.
"In mid-May, with the strengthening of the supply of goods from the north to the south, the tight supply of hydrogen peroxide in the northern market has been alleviated to a large extent. The price of hydrogen peroxide in the southern market has fallen first, and the supply of low-priced goods has moved northward, forming an impact on the northern market and the focus of transactions Down." Tang Shasha said.
At present, the start-up level of hydrogen peroxide installations in Anhui is at a high level, and the receiving goods are light, and the transaction is flexible; the receiving price of hydrogen peroxide in Jiangsu is falling, and the high price of hydrogen peroxide in Zhejiang is difficult to deal with, and the middle and lower reaches are in a wait-and-see mood; South China is affected by external low-priced supply. Affected by the impact, the center of gravity of the transaction of dilute and concentrated hydrogen peroxide products is stable and down, and the inventory is under pressure; the order price of hydrogen peroxide in the two lakes is low, the offer of new orders is weak, and the concentration unit starts to work; the demand for double water in Henan paper mills in central China is weak, and the price difference in the transaction range Larger; the supply of hydrogen peroxide in the southwest region is expected to increase, and the center of gravity is temporarily stable.
"Currently, the hydrogen peroxide market is thin and the scope of trading is expanding. The middle and lower reaches are mainly digesting early orders, and the price center of gravity in many places is going down. It is expected that the price of hydrogen peroxide will stabilize and weaken in the short term." Xue Dongmei said. (Wang Hongzhen)
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