Methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) market is ushering in a boom cycle. In 2023, the whole line is booming, and the mid-year high point climbed to a historical high in eight years. This year, the market price of MTBE is still fluctuating upwards. The current average market price is around 7,625 yuan, an increase of 25% from the beginning of the year. Based on the study and judgment of the fundamentals of future supply and demand, the author believes that the MTBE market will continue the boom cycle.
From the perspective of the demand side, under the double impact of declining demand and energy policies in the past two years, the growth rate of global refining and chemical production capacity has declined, and the production capacity will even shrink in 2021, with a growth rate of -0.41%. The country continues to promote "reducing oil and increasing production", and refineries use more naphtha components for cracking to ethylene, resulting in a decrease in the production of straight-run gasoline and reformed gasoline, and a slowdown in the growth rate of overall gasoline production.
From the perspective of consumption, the number of fuel vehicles continues to grow. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, domestic sales of traditional fuel passenger vehicles in April increased by 65.2% year-on-year. Fuel vehicles have a huge market share. As the economy continues to recover, the gasoline consumption market will remain relatively prosperous in the future. MTBE as the main blending component is bound to rise with the tide. MTBE blend oil prices are highly correlated with gasoline prices. Especially with the implementation of National VI B standard gasoline across the country, in order to meet the new olefin index requirements, blending components such as MTBE and isooctane are required. Driven by the high prosperity of gasoline consumption, coupled with the effective implementation of the National VI B standard, the market demand for MTBE will further increase.
Under the general trend of increasing industry profits, a large number of integrated refineries using self-produced carbon four components to produce MTBE, and deep processing enterprises with stable raw material supply and regional advantages are expected to benefit from it. In recent years, the refining and chemical integration units invested and constructed by various large refineries have been put into operation one after another, and their own C4 deep processing production chain has led to a decrease in C4 raw materials in the export market. Moreover, there is still a regional imbalance in domestic C4 production capacity. Some regions cannot meet market demand. Some independent MTBE deep-processing enterprises have difficulty obtaining sufficient raw materials, so they cannot enjoy the dividends brought by the MTBE market boom cycle. (Zhang Fan)
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