According to the Hunan Provincial Department of Commerce's monitoring data on the province's production means circulation market, in the 24th week of 2023 (June 5-11), the average sales price of coal in Hunan Province was 1,085.92 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%. It was down 11.3% year-on-year. In terms of varieties, the average sales price of anthracite was 1,412.75 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%; the average sales price of bituminous coal was 922.5 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 0.5%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8%.
Coal market prices in Hunan Province have fallen for ten consecutive weeks, with a cumulative drop of 11.1%. The daily consumption of power plants has rebounded, higher than the level of the same period last year, and market activity has been boosted.
Affected by factors such as the improvement of international coal supply and demand, the continuous release of my country's high-quality coal production capacity, and the rebound in imports, coal prices continued to decline. The specific manifestations are as follows: First, the price of international coal market has fallen from a high level. In 2023, the supply of the international coal market will show a loose situation, and the price will fall rapidly under pressure; second, the amount of imported coal will increase significantly. As the international coal price continues to fall and the cost performance of coal imports increases, my country's import volume continues to maintain a high level, which has a significant impact on the high domestic coal price; third, the demand for coal is relatively stable. Due to the slow economic recovery process in the first half of this year. As a result, the growth rate of demand for thermal coal and non-electrical coal has narrowed and remained relatively stable.
The research and judgment on the price trend of the coal market in the later period is, first, the weak recovery of demand. Part of the procurement demand of non-electricity industries such as cement and chemical industry has been released, but they are still relatively cautious, and the willingness to hoard goods is not strong; second, the international coal price has stabilized and rebounded. Coal prices in Indonesia and Australia recently ended a downward trend for several weeks and began to stabilize and recover.
To sum up, with the sharp drop in coal prices, market risks have been released to a certain extent, especially after the port price fell close to the long-term agreement price, the demand for inventory replenishment began to be released. Superimposed high-temperature weather has increased, and the daily coal consumption of power plants has rebounded, forming support for market prices. It is worth noting that the high supply and high inventory in the coal market will continue for a period of time. With the support of no sustainable demand, it is expected that the price of the coal market in Hunan Province will rebound and maintain a slight shock situation in the later period.
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