According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of the 5th, the price of 3128-grade lint cotton was 16,870 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 3.03%.
At the beginning of the week, the cotton spot futures market continued the previous trend, and the market dropped slightly. On Thursday, the Zheng cotton market rose sharply, with an increase of nearly 1,000 points. new high. At the same time, the international cotton price has risen sharply. Under the internal and external linkages, as of the 2nd, the settlement price of Zheng Cotton’s main contract was 16,375 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 6.1%. Boosted by Zheng Cotton’s sharp rise, the cotton spot market rose simultaneously.
Domestic market: The reason for the sharp rise in the futures market this time comes from the fact that a certain company has found out that the statistics of Xinjiang warehouses are less than 2 million tons. Previous industry data showed that as of the end of April, the total amount of cotton in Xinjiang warehouses was about 3,368,100 tons, and the inventory fell by more than one million in just one month. Before the new cotton came into the market, the market was more worried about the inventory in the future.
In the international market, the U.S. debt crisis has been alleviated, the financial market environment has stabilized, the atmosphere in the commodity market is positive, and the ICE cotton futures market has risen sharply. As of the 2nd, the settlement price of the July contract was 86.05 cents, an increase of 2.7 cents from last week point. At present, investors predict that the danger of US default has passed. The market expects the Fed to pause interest rate hikes in June and is shifting its attention to other uncertainties that are more likely to affect economic growth. The current Fed swap transactions have increased market sentiment. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by July.
In terms of demand: the increase in the cotton market has increased this time. Supported by costs, cotton yarn companies are more willing to increase prices. If it continues to rise, the profits of textile enterprises will deteriorate again. The cotton yarn market is rising, but the downstream procurement atmosphere is weak. At present, the overall start-up of textile enterprises is mainly stable, and the inventory of finished products is still at a low level. Compared with the market at the beginning of the month, the price of the gray cloth market in the second half of May has become significantly weaker, and the shipment speed has slowed down. Orders are still differentiated, home textile orders can be arranged until July, and clothing orders are not many, and follow-up connectivity is poor.
Forecast of the market outlook: SunSirs analysts believe that the current market rumors that Xinjiang cotton inventory is low, and the supply may be tight before the new cotton is launched. In the short term, under the hype of the news, the cotton market trend may be strong. Pay attention to the commercial inventory in May data. In the medium and long term, demand has weakened significantly during the off-season of the industry. As downstream demand remains weak, it is still necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a decline.
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